PM’s Israel trip may charm evangelicals

Don Simmonds, the chairman of Christian broadcaster Crossroads International, called in to his company’s flagship program — 100 Huntley Street — from Israel on Tuesday to discuss his trip to the Holy Land as part of Canada’s official delegation.

“It’s really a strong Canadian representation that is here, and about 15 Christian faith leaders as well,” Simmonds told John Hull, CEO of Crossroads. “It’s a privilege really to be part of what is going to be a historic sort of a trip.”

“Congratulations to you and we’re very grateful to God for the opportunity that you as our chairman of Crossroads (are) there participating in all of this,” said Hull.

Simmonds said it was “a very proud day as a Canadian today,” and read part of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s speech to the Knesset: “Canada supports Israel because fundamentally because it is right to do so.”

The same section of the speech was highlighted in 24 Seven, the weekly video produced by the Prime Minister’s Office, which means it was the desired sound bite.

Conservatives like to describe the prime minister’s support for Israel as based on principle, not base political considerations.

That message was undercut somewhat when MP Mark Adler was overheard pleading with a Harper staffer to be included with the prime minister in a photo op at the Western Wall.

“It’s the re-election,” Adler said. “This is the million-dollar shot.”

I don’t know what’s in Harper’s heart, but it’s clear he, like Adler, is seeking political advantage with this trip, although he is not quite as gauche about it.

A key demographic for the prime minister: church-going evangelical Protestants, who make up about 10 per cent of the population of Canada.

Since they are more likely to vote than other Canadians, and more likely to volunteer and donate money to causes they hold dear, their political importance is greater than their raw numbers would suggest.

By inviting 21 rabbis and “15 Christian faith leaders” to Israel with him, Harper is connecting with two constituencies that were an important part of his recent election victories.

While there are only about 10 ridings in Canada where the Jewish vote is significant, there are many more where the evangelical vote is important.

According to pollster Andrew Grenville, of Vision Critical, in the 2006 and 2008 elections, the Conservatives won 64 per cent of the votes of Protestant weekly churchgoers outside Quebec, up from 51 per cent in 2004. In 2011, the party held onto 61 per cent of those votes.

Over the same period, many Catholic voters, alienated by the sponsorship scandal and other issues, abandoned the Liberals.

Harper’s coalition appears to be inspired by the one that got Ronald Reagan elected in 1980, when Jerry Falwell and the Moral Majority first had a big electoral impact in the United States.

A more recent example is George W. Bush, who motivated evangelicals especially effectively in 2004 by managing to get referendums about same-sex marriage on the ballots in many states.

The coalition in Canada is necessarily different, partly because there are fewer evangelicals here. Harper is therefore much less aggressive on social issues, restraining his MPs, for instance, from bringing in an abortion law.

There are signs that some supporters are chafing at that, which makes the Israel trip an important way to connect with a group that needs cultivation.

American polling shows that white evangelicals are more supportive of Israel than even Jewish voters.

Canadian evangelicals are similarly attached to Israel, Grenville says.

“There’s a profound attachment there that makes it an easy button to push,” he said. “That said, I think that Mr. Harper clearly believes himself that it’s important to support Israel. So in that case, he has true common cause, but it’s not inconvenient that that’s a button you can push and get votes as a result.”

Harper, who is down 10 points in the polls from the 2011 election, needs to push any buttons that might produce votes, and will be using new technology to talk to key communities directly. To get out the good news about his trip to the Holy Land, Harper will use 100 Huntley Street, his weekly video, special sessions for ethnic media, and a website designed for the trip and promoted via an email blast.

Pollster Nick Nanos says we can expect a lot more calculated appeals to key elements of his coalition this year.

“2014 is going to be a litany of a political menu, where we see a tick box for every important niche-type voter that Stephen Harper will try to prepare for 2015,” Nanos said.

“There will be something for everyone. They’re going to be looking at the coalition, saying we’d better talk to them this year, because next year we’re going to be asking for their vote.”