The PQ would start an early election on the defensive

Trying to predict Quebec politics is a mug’s game. But fools rush in where the wise fear to tread, so I’m going to break a New Year’s resolution by making what I think is a pretty safe prediction:

If there’s a Quebec general election in the first half of this year, the public finances in particular and the economy in general will be a major campaign issue.

The Parti Québécois has been only partly successful with the “values” issue; it has made it the dominant topic of political conversation in Quebec, and has ridden it close to a majority in the National Assembly in the latest polls.

The party has failed, however, to make values the only issue in a general election, or even the most important one.

In a poll Jan. 17-18 for the Quebecor media, the Léger firm gave voters a list of 11 issues and asked them to choose the one most likely to influence their votes in the next general election.

The PQ values charter ranked only fourth, chosen by only 10 per cent of voters, some of whom might be against the charter.

Ahead of it were Quebecers’ perennial top priority, access to health services, at 23 per cent, followed by two economic issues: job creation (16 per cent), and balancing the budget and reducing the public debt (11 per cent).

In spite of this, Liberal Leader Philippe Couillard has failed to change the subject of conversation from identity to the economy. That’s partly because he and his party have been talking too much recently about the chador and the cross.

He tried again to downplay the values issue at the end of a two-day Liberal caucus meeting this week, dismissing it as a tactic by the PQ to divert attention away from the economy.

He repeated his current sound bite that “there are no police officers wearing religious symbols in Quebec, but there are more than 350,000 unemployed.”

And he promised new measures to help small- and medium-sized enterprises create jobs.

But even if Couillard can’t change the subject to the economy by himself, he can count on help from others.

He said on the RadioCanada political-affairs program Les Coulisses du pouvoir last Sunday that he’s counting on an analysis of the public finances to be tabled in the Assembly after it resumes sitting Feb. 11.

Last September, the Assembly adopted, over the PQ’s objection, a Liberal motion instructing the province’s auditor general to analyze Finance Minister Nicolas Marceau’s budget update.

The update, which Marceau presented in November, confirmed that he would not be able to reach his objective of balancing the government’s annual budget this fiscal year, and forecasted deficits of $2.5 billion and $1.8 billion for the next two years.

Couillard may also be able to count on help from Premier Pauline Marois.

The budget her government is due to present this spring is expected to be an unpopular one, containing austerity measures to reduce the deficit and appease the bond-rating agencies that determine how much interest the government must pay on its debt.

Marois has said the budget might not be presented until late April, a month later than usual. And there are rumours that she might call an election first, as early as Feb. 12 for March 17.

So, anticipating a possible early election call, Couillard this week called on the PQ minority government to present the budget this month, though tellingly, he stopped short of threatening it with a non-confidence mo- tion if it didn’t.

Marois is damned if she presents a budget before calling an election, and damned if she doesn’t.

Either way, she would start the campaign on the defensive, against either the opposition’s criticism of the budget or its accusations that she is hiding a financial disaster.

It would be up to Marois to choose her poison.