Will ‘zero option’ in Afghanistan bring chaos?

WASHINGTON — If U.S. President Barack Obama decided to leave no military advisory force in Afghanistan next year, would Afghan security unravel to the point of enabling a civil war, a Taliban takeover and a return of al-Qaida in such numbers as to pose a Sept. 11-type threat?

That is the question at the core of the debate over Obama’s next move in a long-running standoff with the Afghans over a postwar presence.

A look at the debate and the arguments behind it: Q: Hasn’t Obama said the war will end this year? A: Yes, but that tells only part of the story of the endgame for the United States’ longest war. Obama refers to ending the U.S. and coalition combat role in Afghanistan on Dec. 31, as was agreed four years ago. Aside from the fact that for Afghans, the war and its misery almost certainly will not end this year, the remaining issue for Obama is whether to begin a follow-on military advisory mission in January. Q: What good would advisers do, if 13 years of combat couldn’t win? A: The thinking is that with a little more help, U.S.-trained Afghan government troops could at least hold their own against the Taliban over the next few years, creating a better chance for a long-term political settlement. It has been clear for some time that U.S. and coalition forces can damage but not decisively defeat the Taliban, and that the best hope for peace and stability is to enable an Afghan solution. Q: So what’s the argument against keeping advisers there? A: The practical problem is that Afghan President Hamid Karzai has thus far refused to sign a deal he negotiated with Washington last year that provides the legal basis for U.S. forces to remain there after 2014. Q: Is Obama likely to abandon the idea of providing a follow-on advisory force? A: He is keeping his options open, but many who have closely followed the war believe Obama will keep pressing the Afghans to approve a U.S.-NATO advisory mission. Less than a year after he took office, Obama took ownership of the war by ordering an extra 30,000 troops into battle. Q: How is it possible that, after 13 years of war, the Afghan forces are not ready to stand on their own? A: It depends on how you look at it. U.S. officials say they believe the Afghan army has shown it can stand up to the Taliban. Afghan forces have taken the lead combat role for many months now. The problem is not the Afghans’ will or ability to fight. The problem is the government’s limited ability to sustain them in that fight. Q: When will Obama have to decide whether to pull all U.S. troops out? A: There is no hard deadline. Administration officials had said late last year that they needed a decision by Karzai in a matter of weeks. It now seems that Obama could afford to wait even beyond this summer.