What happens next in Ukraine-Russia conflict?

Russian troops have taken over Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and the new government in Kyiv has been powerless to react. Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected calls from the West to pull back his forces, insisting that Russia has a right to protect its interests. What does Putin gain by seizing Crimea? Immense bargaining power over the new government i n Kyiv. Now that Putin is effectively the master of 26,000 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory, he can try to dictate terms to the new leaders. In particular, he will attempt to shape the formation of a new government and gain power of veto over every decision affecting Russian interests. What might Russia do next? The central question is whether Putin will go beyond Crimea and take control of regions of eastern Ukraine, where Russian speakers also comprise a majority. In Crimea, he achieved the takeover mainly by using forces that were already inside the territory. Doing the same in eastern Ukraine would, however, require Russia to send troops and tanks across an international frontier. What options does Ukraine have? Very few. Their priority will be to deter Putin from advancing into eastern Ukraine. In the event of an invasion, the Ukrainian army probably would resist and it would be capable of inflicting losses on the Russians. Whether it could halt a Russian advance is another question. What about the West? Their focus will also be on preventing Putin from invading eastern Ukraine. The U.S. and its allies are unlikely to risk a war with Russia by sending troops. Instead, they will try to exploit Putin’s Achilles heel: the weakness of the Russian economy.