For Harper, it remains ‘all economy, all the time’
In promoting Joe Oliver and Greg Rickford simultaneously to this government’s two most important portfolios, Finance and Natural Resources respectively, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has made a no-nonsense, unsurprising move that cements the Conservatives’ overwhelming strategic focus on resource extraction. It remains to be seen whether Oliver can display anything approaching outgoing finance minister Jim Flaherty’s common touch, especially in the critically important Greater Toronto hinterland and more broadly across Ontario.
Reporters covering the swearingin ceremony Wednesday were nonplussed by the perfunctory style of this rather important cabinet shuffle, with the three promotees — Ed Holder replaces Rickford as Minister of State for Science and Technology — being sworn-in to their new jobs with little fanfare and without anyone taking questions. This should not be mistaken for a lack of attention to public perceptions of the shuffle. When switching out a finance minister of Flaherty’s experience and profile, it makes tactical sense to pass the baton, if not invisibly, then with minimal fuss.
Doing so also allowed Oliver to duck, for now, the inevitable questions about where he stands on income-splitting, the government’s signature promise in the 2011 election, which Flaherty all but scuppered single-handedly in delivering his 2014 budget. It will be no surprise at all if the new finance minister, when he does eventually take questions, is firmly noncommittal on this subject. Expect him to say that the government absolutely will reduce the tax burden on hard-working Canadian families, unlike the profligate wastrels across the aisle, or something to that effect, and all options remain on the table. And that will be that, at least for a while.
After Flaherty’s bombshell — he said he thought income-splitting might not be such a grand idea, because it helps wealthier families disproportionately, which it does — there was a flurry of high-level leaks, all saying he and Prime Minister Stephen Harper were actually of one mind, income-splitting was indeed being re-evaluated, and the brief cacophony of conflicting statements from other senior ministers was all somehow part of this brilliant ploy. Late in February, the PM himself scuttled that line of thinking, when he briefly reiterated his support for income-splitting in the House of Commons.
The reality though is that it doesn’t hurt the Tories to leave some uncertainty hanging over this question, as they wait to get a better read on where Justin Trudeau’s Liberals will land on taxes. Flaherty, a street politician with very good instincts, was clearly aware of how incomesplitting might be used by the Grits to portray the Tories as favouring the rich at the expense of the middle class. The social-conservative aspect of this tax cut — that it makes it easier for one parent, who most often will be the mother, to work in the home — ensures its popularity with the true-blue wing of the Conservative party. But Conservatism in Ontario is a different animal, more centrist. Flaherty understood this intuitively; it remains to be seen whether Oliver does.
From a regional perspective, not a lot changes here; if anything the new regional mix is an improvement. Rickford, the MP for Kenora, Ont., is a solid choice for Natural Resources; he was already the federal minister responsible for the Ring of Fire mining belt in Northern Ontario (he retains this role) and also is very familiar with First Nations issues, having played a significant role on the government side during the Idle No More talks, when he was parliamentary secretary to the Minister of Indian Affairs and Northern Development.
The big unknown is how much Oliver, at Finance, shifts this government rightward, and what effect that will have on its electoral prospects, particularly in middleof-the-road Ontario. Flaherty has long been among the Conservatives’ most moderate voices and Oliver, though much less outgoing than his predecessor, has gained a reputation as an ideologue, mainly because of his famous 2012 open letter, in which he castigated “environmental and other radical groups” for blocking resource development. What is not in question is his professional suitability for the job — he’s a former executive director of the Ontario Securities Commission, former CEO of the Investment Dealers Association of Canada, a McGilltrained lawyer and Harvard MBA.
Over and above all that, this shuffle reasserts, very plainly, the Harper government’s extractivist strategy, which it launched in earnest in 2012. Based on a brief conversation I had with Oliver last summer in Rankin Inlet, he quite sincerely believes that prosperity for Canada, and in particular for aboriginal Canadians, depends on ramped-up resource development. In Rickford he has a partner who knows that file. The two together, therefore represent a doubling down on the mantra of “all economy, all the time.”