Polls show voter dynamic is shifting

POLARIZED BY TALK of a referendum, exhausted by debate over the charter of values, voters are grappling with a more basic issue: who would be the best premier? As the campaign enters its final sprint, Philip Authier examines the poll numbers and what they

Twenty-two days into the election campaign and, as surprising as that sounds, Quebecers are now thinking about who is best able to govern the province.

The big word of the week, and probably for the rest of the race, has become integrity.

Polarized by talk of a referendum, exhausted with debate about the charter of values and with the pantry bare of economic talking points, the campaign Tuesday shifted from sideshow into traditional territory.

Who would be the best premier? Are the new Liberals under Philippe Couillard more ethical then the old ones? Do party leaders have to reveal all their personal finances and those of their spouses?

That does not mean the tone of the debate is going to get any better.

With a new public opinion poll out Tuesday, the mudslinging will continue to get worse.

According to a new LégerJournal de Montréal poll published Tuesday, had an election been held this week the Liberals would have formed a majority government.

Léger pegged provincewide support for the Liberals at 40 per cent compared with 33 per for the PQ, 15 per cent for the Coalition Avenir Québec and nine per cent for Québec solidaire.

Using a projection formula, the website Too Close To call concluded the Liberals would bag 64 seats in the National Assembly, the PQ 54, the CAQ five and QS two.

As any pollster will tell you, such a survey is a snapshot in time and things can change between now and the April 7 vote. Studies show 40 per cent of Quebecers finalize their election decision on the weekend before the vote.

Ahead lies the second of the campaign leader’s debates Thursday evening on TVA.

The poll does, however, show Liberals trending up.

In the crucial francophone vote category, the PQ advance over the Liberals is now only 10 percentage points. Eighty per cent of Quebec’s ridings are decided by the francophone vote.

Having hoovered up the CAQ federalist vote, the Liberals now have 30 per cent of the francophone vote, compared with 40 per cent for the PQ. The CAQ is down to 17 per cent.

But the poll shows the dynamic is changing; the classic complexities of Quebec voting patterns are re-emerging.

Since the poll shows half of Quebecers believe the Liber- als will form the government (when the campaign started most Quebecers thought it would be the PQ), the fear of a referendum is abating.

As a result, voters now are having a second look at the Liberals, seeking some confirmation the party — which they kicked out of office in 2012 — has changed enough to merit governing.

On that front, Couillard has squeaked into first position in the category best person to be premier. Thirty-one per cent of respondents believe that, compared with 25 per cent who think Marois would be the best premier.

Given a choice between electing a Liberal or a PQ government, 48 per cent now say they prefer the Liberals.

Those nuggets run deeper than just an aversion to a referendum and have infuriated PQ strategists, who did not count on the good government trust factor — a secondary effect of the referendum scare — coming down the track.

The PQ campaign is scrambling to adjust, flinging new mud at the Liberals.

The PQ candidate for Borduas, Pierre Duchesne, summoned the media to a Montreal news conference Tuesday, where he announced plans to file a complaint with Quebec’s chief electoral officer about a Liberal fundraising event.

On the campaign trail, Marois lashed out, accusing the Liberals of running a scare campaign.

“Quebecers have been roughed up and manipulated in a sense by Mr. Couillard, who tried to make people believe this is an election on a referendum,” she said at a campaign stop in Blainville.

An increasingly isolated and shrill CAQ leader Fran- çois Legault added: “I don’t feel that the Liberal government which was thrown out of office 18 months ago has changed in 18 months.

“We are just returning to the status quo of the last nine years which represents a quiet decline for Quebec.”

But general provincial poll numbers — especially with a dozen campaign days ahead — can be deceiving.

Léger, for example, has Liberal support in Montreal at 50 per cent, compared with 29 per cent for the PQ.

But the vote is concentrated, meaning the riding situation on the island is expected to remain virtually unchanged and have little impact on the equation determining who wins. That’s why the parties usually begin and end their campaigns fighting for about a dozen swing ridings in the regions.

The poll shows the Liberals and PQ are neck-and-neck in the Mauricie-Quebec Centre ridings and Eastern Townships battlegrounds.

Quebec City ridings, once considered CAQ strongholds, are slipping back into Liberals hands. PQ-held ridings in Laval appear to be in danger of going to the Liberals.

In some cases, the PQ won them in 2012 after the CAQ split the vote. But with the CAQ collapsing — the poll has them third in every region of the province — those ridings are ripe for picking.