Francophone support for PQ in free fall: poll
A new poll of voter intentions released Wednesday evening puts Philippe Couillard’s Liberal Party ahead by a growing margin leading up to Monday’s provincial election.
The Liberals have support from 37 per cent of decided voters compared to 28 per cent for the Parti Québécois, 19 per cent to François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec and 13 per cent for Québec solidaire.
Then again, seven per cent of voters remain undecided, and almost one-third (28 percent)of respondents said their vote could change, depending on what happens during the final campaign stretch.
The Ipsos-Reid poll conducted for CTV is the second in two days to project a Liberal win by a comfortable margin — and to show the PQ’s support among francophones in free fall. A Forum Research poll Monday put the Liberals in a position to win a majority government, with 41 per cent of respondents choosing them over 29 per cent who said they would vote PQ.
What is significant about the Ipsos-Reid poll is that it gives Liberals and PQ equal support among franco phones, with 31 per cent, while the Liberals have 83 per cent of support among anglophones.
“There was an exodus of votes from the PQ to the three other major parties, but especially to the CAQ and Québec solidaire,” explained Ipsos president Luc Durand. Support for both the CAQ and QS went up 3 per cent since the last Ipsos Reid poll March 19. “There was a lot of bad news for the PQ in the last few days.”
PQ Leader Pauline Marois has been dogged by allegations her husband solicited thousands of dollars to fund her leadership campaign. And after two debates, her personal popularity seems to have plummeted from a high of 35 per cent in February to 25 per cent.
Asked which candidate would make the best premier, 33 per cent chose Couillard, 25 per cent chose Marois, 25 per cent chose Legault, while 13 per cent chose QS’s Françoise David. The poll was conducted online with 1,012 Quebecers between March 28 and April 1 — after the second acrimonious debate.
Asked who their second choice would be, 33 per cent said the CAQ, compared to 21 per cent for Québec solidaire.
But the Ipsos-Reid poll also offered insight into which voters are the most decided.
Among the 72 per cent who replied that “nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote,” support for the Liberals was greatest, with 40 per cent, 28 per cent said they support the PQ, 18 per cent the CAQ and 12 per cent the QS.
Still, with five days left before the election, 28 per cent of respondents said their vote “is movable depending on what happens in the rest of the campaign.”
“That support for the PQ continues to fall is important,” Durand said. “The francophone vote is now equally divided among Liberals and the PQ — the PQ is on a slippery slope. But a third of voters are saying they could still change their vote. It’s still a very volatile race.”
The poll is considered accurate to within 3.5 percentage points.