Pundits dissect PQ election strategy
Marois has begun to assess tactical campaign errors
Let the second-guessing begin.
As Quebec’s election campaign heads into Monday’s vote, the armchair quarterbacks have started dissecting the governing Parti Québécois’s strategy and possible mistakes.
In a campaign tagged as plain ugly and marked by a chronic lack of polling data, the results Monday can still surprise. Not a single pundit would call the election in this climate.
But it’s clear the PQ would like to be sitting in a more comfortable seat so close to the vote.
Instead, several polls have shown the Liberals ahead by varying degrees, the Coalition Avenir Québec vote stable, but still under 20 per cent, and the PQ hovering around 30 per cent.
For a “make good” election after PQ Leader Pauline Marois failed to get the majority she wanted in 2012, the results shouldn’t be so up in the air.
But things have not gone according to plan. With little campaigning time left, Marois told a Trois-Rivières radio host this week she wished she had another week on the trail.
Some cabinet ministers were showing signs of the jitters.
On his Twitter feed, Rosemont PQ MNA Jean-François Lisée, made another appeal to Québec solidaire and Option nationale voters to think twice and unite with the PQ to block the Liberals.
For a second election in a row, QS appears to be causing havoc with the PQ, particularly on the island, including the downtown riding of Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, as it sells itself as the true progressive party, an antidote to the new corporate Pierre Karl Péladeau PQ.
There’s also blowback to the proposed charter of secular values. The device the PQ used to boost its numbers high enough to launch the campaign was supposed to sustain them for 33 days.
In a recent analysis, respected Université de Montréal public opinion expert Claire Durand said the referendum effect, combined with non-francophone opposition to the charter, came together mobilizing Liberal voters “more than usual.”
Meanwhile, the nonfrancophone-allophone population of Montreal has dispersed during the last few years, with those voters dissatisfied enough to mobilize their communities.
In some PQ-held ridings, the non-francophone population is over 20 per cent, rising to highs of 35 per cent in some Laval ridings, Durand noted.
In the swing riding of Crémazie, where PQ Language Minister Diane De Courcy won in 2012 by less than 10 per cent, 28 per cent are non-francophone.
Consistently underestimated by pollsters, things have changed since the 2012 election, in which many nonfrancophones voted PQ or CAQ, Durand added.
“They were ready to vote then because the referendum was not a threat and they were not scared,” Durand said in an interview.
“The charter sealed the divorce.”
The PQ has not helped itself, either, with its erratic sales job of the charter.
After maintaining for months that the charter was legal and would not require the use of the notwithstanding clause, Marois said she’s ready to use it.
The gover nment tried to downplay potential job losses by saying it believes public sector workers will comply with the ban on religious attire.
On Monday, Lisée told The Gazette there would be no job losses, but by Thursday Marois conceded there could be.
Among the first to wonder where the PQ was going was its former leader, Lucien Bouchard, who thought the charter went too far.
“In my view, the real identity question is language,” Bouchard told TVA. “Secu- larism, undoubtedly. But I don’t think we are in a crisis which threatens secularism.
The Quebec state has not been kidnapped by religion.”
In the media, columnists have started talking about uncertain days ahead for Marois should she fail to win a majority. Lists of successors are circulating.
Her last-minute promise of tax cuts, made at the Montreal Board of Trade when the budget tabled a month ago said none were possible, had an air of desperation, they noted.
Marois has started to address campaign errors, including what is being called Péladeau “black Sunday.”
While she was aware of the content of Péladeau’s launch speech, the famous fist-pump for a country, a gesture registered around the world, was not scripted.
In a Radio-Canada interview, Marois accused Liberal Leader Philippe Couillard of exploiting the Péladeau factor to instill fear.
When the host noted it was Marois who kept it alive by answering questions about borders, passports and money, Marois responded.
“Maybe I should not have answered the questions from your journalistic colleagues, but it’s because I have the knowledge.”
On the campaign trail Friday, the mood was intense as the leaders racked up mileage in a last-ditch effort.
While the Liberal caravan was confidently hitting ridings held by opposition parties in the belief they can swing them over, the PQ was visiting ridings in Laval and the Eastern Townships they already have in a bid to hold them.
Anything is possible, CAQ Leader François Legault confidently told reporters, noting his team took control of the “third period” of the campaign and scored several key goals.