Five things to know about March Madness
RIDICULOUS ODDS
As you fi l l out your NCAA bracket this week, keep this in mind: the odds of picking every game correctly are less than 1 in 9.2 quintillion. Yes, quintillion, which would look like this: 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. That’s according to Jeff Bergen, a math professor at DePaul University.
“It would be more likely for the next 16 World Series to be won by the Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox than it would be to pick a perfect bracket by guessing,” Bergen said in a release. “It’s essentially impossible to guess a perfect bracket.”
TOP SEEDS CANFALL
While a No. 16 team has never beaten a top seed, high rankings don’t mean everything when filling out your bracket. Take Duke, for example. Since winning the title in 2010, the Blue Devils have twice been one- and- done in March. As a No. 2 seed in 2012, they were eliminated by Lehigh in the first round and as a No. 3 last year, they fell to Mercer. It’s rare for a No. 2 to lose to a No. 15, although it has happened. In the past 30 years it’s happened just seven times, according to oddsshark. com. A No. 14 seed, by comparison, has knocked off a No. 3 seed 16 times in the last 30 years.
WILL KENTUCKY STAY UNBEATEN?
The University of Kentucky finished the season with a perfect 34- 0 record, becoming just the third team in the past 30 years to enter the tournament without a loss. History suggests that means little as March Madness begins. Wichita State also was a perfect 34- 0 last year before falling 78- 76 to Kentucky in the second round. UNLV was 30- 0 in 1991 before losing to eventual champion Duke in the Final Four. The last team to cap a perfect season with an NCAA title was the Indiana Hoosiers in 1976.
LESSON FROM LAST YEAR
The University of Connecticut entered last year’s tournament ranked No. 7 — and went on to win the whole thing. Of 11 million- plus brackets entered in ESPN’s Tournament Challenge, just 27,203 ( 0.3 per cent) picked UConn to win. The Huskies were the first No. 7 seed to make the Final Four, according to oddssharks. com. Prior to last year, no No. 7 had made it farther than the Elite Eight. A No. 10 seed has never made it past the Elite Eight, with seven teams making it that far over the past 30 years.
GROUP OF DEATH
If you’re looking to pick some upsets in your bracket, you might want to look at the 6- 11 matches. According to oddssharks, a No. 6 ranking “has been the kiss of death in March Madness brackets more often than not.” Last year, No. 11 Dayton used a first- round upset of Ohio State to make it all the may to the Elite Eight, where they finally fell to No. 1 Florida. Tennessee started its run with an 86- 67 victory over Massachusetts before eventually losing 73- 71 to No. 2 Michigan in the Sweet Sixteen.