Is electoral reform inevitable in Canada?

We should be thinking about and discussing this complex problem,

Electoral reform seems to be old hat in Canada, and no one is talking about it. But we should be, since it may very well find its way to the political agenda well before the end of next year.

At this point, the most likely outcome of next October’s election is a minority government headed by Justin Trudeau. To govern, the Liberal Party of Canada may have to turn to the New Democratic Party for support, which would likely come in good part at the price of reopening the electoral reform debate. To see how this might play out, we should consider what happened in the United Kingdom, where the minority government accepted to hold a referendum on reforming the British electoral system.

In May 2011, the U. K. held a referendum asking citizens if they wanted to keep the actual “first- past- the- post’’ — winner takes all — system or to change it for the alternative vote. One year earlier, in 2010, the U. K. general election had produced a minority government with the conservative David Cameron at its head. To stay in office, the Tories needed the support of the Liberal- Democrats, a third party disadvantaged, like the NDP, by the winner-takes- all system. To win that support, among other things, the Tories accepted to hold a referendum on electoral reform. In the end, with Labour as well as the Tories telling people to vote no, the Lib- Dems proved unable to convince enough voters to opt for a different electoral system.

One might think that this scenario cannot be transposed to Canada because the situation is not the same. In fact the differences that do exist make it more rather than less likely we move toward electoral reform. In the U. K., the Liberal- Democrats had to form an alliance with a Conservative party that was against any reform. In Canada, the NDP would be negotiating with a Liberal party that is ambivalent. Just last week Justin Trudeau said he had no problem accepting a preferential voting system for Canada as had been endorsed by the young Liberals. And we know that others, including former leaders Stéphane Dion and Bob Rae, are sympathetic to electoral reform.

There would of course have to be discussion over just what alternatives should be considered and how they should be placed before the people. The lesson from the U. K. experience, like that of Ontario and British Columbia, is that letting the people decide will entail giving Canadians the choice between the status quo and the most appropriate alternative electoral system.

How good are the chances of this happening? It is impossible to predict the outcome of the election, but the polls do favour a Liberal minority government. Should Justin Trudeau falter, the anti- Tory vote could go to the NDP, resulting in an NDP minority, a scenario even more favourable to electoral reform. Uncertainty arises as to the position of the Conservatives, not on electoral reform per se, which we know them to oppose, but whether they will make it an issue, by evoking the “danger” of a Liberal- NDP coalition. And how would Trudeau react to such an accusation? Would he rule out any possible postelectoral agreement with the NDP?

I am not making the argument for, or indeed against, electoral reform here. But if I am right, it will soon be time for Canadians to start once again thinking about this complex question. There is a rich experience to consult, both here and elsewhere, and it would be real mistake not to give it the attention it deserves.