RACE TO PLAYOFFS
It comes down to math
Probability makes for a lousy opponent. It cares not for your heart or your grit. It doesn’t give in if your goaltender is a great surprise story with a better nickname. Probability says that even if your team wants it more, it will win out in the end.
To which, fans of the Ottawa Senators and Calgary Flames can say: we only need to outlast the cold, hard odds for two more weeks. It is going to be quite the race. You are familiar with the storylines by now. In Calgary, a Flames team that was almost unanimously thought to be among the league’s bottom five teams — right where they were last season — has instead been inside the playoff bubble for most of the season. They seem to have accomplished this feat with the hockey equivalent of chewing gum, matchsticks and bailing wire, winning a pile of games in which their opponent thoroughly controlled the play. They have done unusually well in overtime and shootouts, have the most comeback wins in hockey, and have even had an absurd stretch of luck with their goalie pulled.
They also happen to be one of the worst teams in the league in terms of shot differential, right there near the bottom with the Toronto Maple Leafs, who both appear to be terrible and, in fact, are.
The explanation most often given for this dichotomy — other than that the Flames are the beneficiaries of extreme good fortune — is that they have a lot of heart, and commitment, and a compete level that is just so high that it would arouse suspicions if you could test for it. But probability might finally be catching up to them.
After Sunday’s victory over Nashville, Calgary is in third place in the Pacific Division with 89 points, one point ahead of the Los Angeles Kings, who sit one point outside of the wild- card race. But the defending Stanley Cup champs do not figure to go quietly.
And the Winnipeg Jets are hanging around in the everchanging wild- card race.
If the Flames are unable to eke out the required points to make the post- season, it won’t be a case of them losing their heart or finding their supply of grit tragically exhausted, but simply a case of their season- long highwire act catching up to them. ( Not to mention the impact of losing captain Mark Giordano for the season. That hurts in a very tangible way.)
In Ottawa, an overtime loss to Toronto on Saturday — a game that they led 2- 0 in the second period and then 3- 2 with two minutes left in the third — left the Senators one point back of Boston for the final wild- card slot in the East. Another loss on Sunday against Florida, coupled with the Bruins’ 2- 1 overtime win over Carolina, pushed them further back again.
The Senators’ great run rivals Calgary’s in terms of improbability, but for slightly different reasons. Ottawa’s puck- possession numbers have jumped significantly under coach Dave Cameron, who took over for the deposed Paul MacLean in early December, so it’s not a case of their recent run of success totally defying the odds. But the streak of goaltender Andrew Hammond has defied them, and then some. It’s not just the rookie’s 14- 1- 1 record or his sparkling 1.92 goals- against average, it’s that he is doing all this despite having no track record that would suggest an NHL star in the making. He had a 3.51 goals- against average — and an .898 save percentage — in 25 games for the AHL’s Binghamton Senators this year. In Ottawa, facing better shooters, he has a .938 save percentage, or about the same as Carey Price, the Canadiens goaltender who is a serious candidate for league MVP honours. It’s all a bit goofy, and with the inspired Hamburglar nickname, he is one of the great stories in an NHL season, low on goals and high on tanking. ( It’s a slightly less great story now that the Sens are discouraging fans from throwing hamburgers on the ice. Poor Curtis Lazar is going to waste away.)
Probability, indifferent jerk that it is, says that Ottawa and Calgary are going to end the season outside of the playoffs. It says that the Cinderella runs have been fun, but it’s almost pumpkin o’clock.
But two weeks’ worth of whatever pixie dust has blessed them thus far isn’t that unreasonable an ask, is it? If you can beat the odds for 75 games, you can beat them for seven more. The Flames and Sens don’t have to outrun math forever. They just have to outrun it for now.