TRUDEAU LANDS THE BEST PUNCHES AGAINST SOLID FOES

There were no knockout punches, nor even many moments of high drama. All four participants, paradoxically enough, did themselves some good. But even so, on balance, it was Justin Trudeau’s night.

The Liberal leader came to the first debate of Campaign 2015, staged by Maclean’s and deftly moderated by the magazine’s political editor, Paul Wells, with a clear imperative: he needed to show he could match wits with Stephen Harper and Tom Mulcair and walk away from the encounter, while offering an approach to governing he thinks will appeal to more voters than the other plans on offer. He did that, time and time again. Just by virtue of the fact he acquitted himself honourably, following months of attack ads that billed him as a gaffeprone bumbler, Trudeau won.

Mulcair, the opposition leader and the man with the most wind in his sails poll-wise, had a slightly different objective: he came to introduce himself to English Canadians, many of whom don’t yet know him well, as a prospective prime minister, a moderate New Democrat who will not set his hair or the house on fire if he’s given the keys to 24 Sussex Dr. He did that. Mulcair also clearly was trying to, once and for all, put to rest his reputation as having a hot temper. If anything, he seemed preternaturally calm. But he was, certainly, prime ministerial. Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, seeking a rare fourth successive term as prime minister, came to demonstrate he still has the fire in his belly, and present himself as the only leader on offer with a track record of competent economic management, public-safety rigour and foreign policy clarity. He did that. Harper was consistently strong, and avoided getting rattled. But because his solid performance was expected, the effect beyond his base may be limited.

Green party Leader Elizabeth May came to display one of the few cards she holds in a polity dominated by much larger, better funded opponents — her personal charisma and likability — and parlay that into a bigger share of the popular vote and thus, greater influence. She did that in spades. May delivered an outstanding performance. She also wound up, time and time again, helping Trudeau, indirectly, by doubleteaming Harper on answers, particularly with respect to the environment.

In short, they all did well, as did moderator Wells. But because of the curious reverse psychology of such encounters, Trudeau — who was the perceived underdog going in — consistently seemed to get the better of the one-onone exchanges, particularly with respect to Senate reform and pipelines.

Earlier in the day, the various teams were hard at work preparing the ground and positioning their leaders for the social-media follow-through that has become critical to the political debate process. All three major parties, not surprisingly, were playing down their standard-bearer’s chances, attempting to lower expectations ahead of any possible miscue on their side.

The Tory war room paradoxically stressed Trudeau’s past experience as a public speaker, his long experience in the public eye, and the fact that he’d ostensibly been in debate training between five and seven hours a week since May (to minimize the impact of a debate win by him). Mulcair was presented — by a Conservative, mind you — as a veteran politician who has proven his rhetorical skill in the House of Commons. That later turned out to be prescient planning.

New Democrats on Thursday afternoon were playing down Mulcair’s vaunted ferocity, meantime, stressing the difference between TV debate and Commons debate, and suggested their side’s expectations were relatively modest; to present their man as an attractive and palatable prospect to be prime minister. Given that many voters in English Canada don’t yet know Mulcair, they stressed, this made more sense than reaching for a knockout blow so early in the campaign.

The Liberal backroom, for its part, simply reiterated the core focus in all of Trudeau’s recent speeches, which is to say, look at our plan, look at their plans, compare and contrast. As I have written previously, the Liberals have in the space of four months gone from having very little detailed policy to having reams of policy, and a sanguine confidence that, if Canadians take the time to examine it and compare, they will come out ahead. The surprise Thursday was not the plan, but the strength of Trudeau’s presentation.

The great question mark, Harper and also Mulcair to an extent being known quantities, concerned whether Trudeau could pull this off, without putting his foot in his mouth. His team and supporters will have breathed a great sigh of relief at the closing bell. His team can now begin to parlay a comeback narrative, because their man, once again, came up smiling when many expected he’d hit the canvas and not get up.

Trudeau consistently seemed to get the better of the one-on-one exchanges, particularly with respect to Senate reform and pipelines.