PEERING INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL
It’s tough to predict Emmy winners
The Oscars are a piece of cake to predict. The Emmys are a crapshoot.
For starters, there are numerous film-awards shows — the Golden Globes et al — leading up to the Oscars, which invariably serve as excellent precursors. On the other hand, there are precious few TV awards shows leading up to the Emmys. Although the Golden Globes award TV achievements, they are a year behind these current Emmy nominations.
More to the point, however, we are in the midst of a golden age on the tube, particularly now that online streaming sources are considered part of the TV world for Emmy Award purposes.
There is such an abundance of sterling product available — and in an array of varieties to please all palates — that it’s a wonder that Emmy selectors can even keep categories down to the six or seven nominees in each.
It goes without saying that few consider this a golden age for film, particularly with producers hell bent on sequels, reboots and comic-book heroes designed to attract the free-spending adolescent demographic.
As a consequence, the pay TV and online streaming networks, in particular, have been able to conscript many of the best actors, writers and directors around.
On that note, here are my fearless picks on who/what will win and who/what should win at the 67th Emmy Awards Sunday night:
DRAMA SERIES
Better Call Saul, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, Homeland, House of Cards, Mad Men, Orange is the New Black Who will win: Hell, the intoxicating Ray Donovan and The Knick didn’t even get nominated. Game of Thrones led with most nominations: 24. Big Deal. Won’t win. They finally got the right category for the non-comedy Orange Is the New Black. Won’t help. Its Netflix cousin, House of Cards, hit the law of diminishing returns in Season 3. Downton Abbey? Sorry. Homeland remains must-see, yet won’t pull it off this year. No, sentiment will rule and the finale season of Mad Men will take its record fifth statuette in this category. But watch out for Better Call Saul next year. Who Should Win: Homeland is in a class all its own, but Mad Men broke new ground on the tube and should be rightly rewarded for its swan-song season.
COMEDY SERIES
Louie, Modern Family, Parks and Recreation, Silicon Valley, Transparent, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, Veep Who will win: Tough category: Louie, Silicon Valley and Transparent all slay. Smart money should probably go on Modern Family taking its sixth Emmy here. Hard to fault anything about this family, but another killer ensemble piece, Veep, one of the sharpest, most hilarious parodies ever to surface, will finally get its due here. Who should win: Veep. The Donald ought to pay heed.
LEAD ACTOR, DRAMA
Bo bO denkirk (Better Call Saul), Kyle Chandler (Bloodline), Kevin Spacey (House of Cards), Jon Hamm (Mad Men), Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom), Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan) Who will win: Another toughie category: Odenkirk and Schreiber are magnetic. Spacey is … well … Spacey. But Mad Men sentiment will rule once more here, and eight — the number of Emmy nominations he has received in this category — will prove lucky for Hamm for his first win here. Who should win: Former Saturday Night Live trouper Odenkirk is the glue to Better Call Saul, the Breaking Bad prequel that may eventually surpass the brilliance of that latter series. In a world of bizarro anti-heroes, Odenkirk stands out.
LEAD ACTRESS, DRAMA
Taraji P. Henson (Empire), Claire Danes (Homeland), Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder), Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black), Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men), Robin Wright (House of Cards) Who will win: Too bad for Tatiana and Taraji, as well as the marvellous Moss and Danes, but Davis nails this role and will certainly scoop up this prize. Who should win: Not to detract from Davis, but her competition is perhaps even more deserving. Homeland just doesn’t do it without the emotional volcano that is Danes. But the oft-morose Moss reflects the spirit of Mad Men as much as Hamm and should finally get some recognition.
LEAD ACTOR, COMEDY
Anthony Anderson ( black-ish), Matt LeBlanc (Episodes), Don Cheadle (House of Lies), Will Forte (The Last Man On Earth), Louis C.K. (Louie), William H. Macy (Shameless), Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent) Who will win: What? No Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory) to pull off yet another heist here? This one is a no-brainer: The much-travelled Tambor wins in a walk for his magnificently moving portrayal as the transgender woman, albeit in a role that is as dramatic as it is comic. Who should win: Louis C.K. may be the funniest man in the world, and yet, shockingly, he has never taken this category. Nor will he this year. But he will benefit from all the angst as a consequence.
LEAD ACTRESS, COMEDY
Lisa Kudrow (The Comeback), Lily Tomlin (Grace And Frankie), Amy Schumer (Inside Amy Schumer), Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie), Amy Poehler (Parks And Recreation), Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep) Who will win: Time for my annual rant: Wild about Falco, but there is nothing remotely comedic about her playing the part of a junkie-albeit-dedicated nurse whose life is forever falling apart at the seams. Yes, this is the Year of the Schumer, but not even she can stop the cosmic comic force that is Louis-Dreyfus. This will be No. 5 for Julia, and she ain’t finished yet. So much for that fabled Seinfeld curse! Who should win: Schumer is a blast and Poehler, who has yet to win in this category, goes out in glory in her show’s final season, but, seriously, who makes us giggle more than Louis-Dreyfus — regardless of gender?
VARIETY TALK SERIES
The Colbert Report, The Daily Show With Jon Stewart, Jimmy Kimmel Live, Last Week Tonight With John Oliver, Late Show With David Letterman, The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon Who will win: Say good night, Jimmys. Sentiment figures prominently here. Stewart and Letterman, two giants of late-night, are both gone. Their shows both merit the highest of accolades. But a split in the vote will likely result in The Colbert Report — also its finale season — to slip through the middle and cop the award once again. Ironically, it could prove awfully difficult for Colbert in his new late-night gig to repeat here ever again. Who should win: Sentiment notwithstanding — and it’s hard to avoid in the case of my addiction to both Letterman and Stewart — the reality is that Last Week Tonight With John Oliver is one crackerjack piece of political satire and merits the prize most.
VARIETY SKETCH SERIES
Drunk History, Inside Amy Schumer, Key & Peele, Portlandia, Saturday Night Live Who will win: Gotta love this category for the attention it gives these sketch-comedy series that would invariably get lost in the shuffle. All are contenders here, although this wasn’t a banner year for SNL. Hard to beat the impressions of Key & Peele or those of Fred Armisen and half my namesake, Carrie Brownstein, in Portlandia, but this is, after all, the Year of the Schumer and since she can’t topple LouisDreyfus in the comedy-actress category, this will be her reward. Who should win: Key & Peele or Portlandia or Inside Amy Schumer? Have to flip a coin here. But there are no three-headed coins, so opting for cop-out three-way split.
Briefly: In the Limited Series category, place your will-win bets on the superb Olive Kitteridge; and in the Television Movie category, go for the equally sensational Bessie. Both shows should win, too.
As for best Reality-Competition series … who cares? But if history repeats itself, The Amazing Race will cop the award once again.