Close races in Atlantic Canada
The federal Liberals hold solid leads in two closely watched Atlantic Canada races, while the Conservatives are hanging on in a three-way race in Peter MacKay’s former Nova Scotia riding, according to a new poll conducted exclusively for Postmedia Network.
A Mainstreet Research poll of voters in two Nova Scotia ridings held by the Conservatives until the election — Central Nova and Cumberland-Colchester — shows the Tories are likely to lose at least one of those seats. Another poll in the Newfoundland and Labrador riding of Avalon shows a strong lead for the Liberals.
The telephone poll of 660 adults in Cumberland-Colchester shows Liberal candidate Bill Casey — a longtime former Tory who represented the riding for about 17 years — leads with the support of 35 per cent of all voters, followed by Conservative incumbent Scott Armstrong at 24 per cent. The NDP’s Wendy Robinson (eight per cent) and the Green party’s Jason Blanch (five per cent) are well back.
“I would be really surprised if Mr. Casey wasn’t successful at this point,” said pollster David Valentin, executive vice-president of Mainstreet Research. “He’s just a very, very popular personality out there. He’s someone who’s very well known.”
Casey was booted out of the Conservative caucus in 2007 for voting against the government’s budget and sat as an Independent. He resigned from politics in 2009 and Armstrong won the seat in a byelection. Armstrong is Casey’s former campaign manager.
Tory candidate Fred DeLorey, a longtime Conservative Party of Canada political operative, leads a three-way race in Central Nova with 29 per cent support of voters, followed by Liberal candidate Sean Fraser at 22 per cent and the NDP’s Ross Landry, a former provincial cabinet minister, at 19 per cent. The Green party’s David Hachey is well back at six per cent.
The Newfoundland riding of Avalon is also one that political observers are keeping a close eye on.
Liberal candidate Ken McDonald, a popular local mayor, has a comfortable lead with 37 per cent support among all voters, according to the telephone poll of 679 Avalon residents, followed by the NDP’s Jeannie Baldwin at 16 per cent, with Andrews and Conservative candidate Lorraine Barnett both at 13 per cent.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.79 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, in Cumberland-Colchester, 3.82 percentage points in Central Nova, and 3.74 percentage points in Avalon.
The Mainstreet poll for the three ridings, using what’s known as interactive voice response, was conducted Sept. 17 using a mixture of land lines and cellphones. Results were weighted by age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian census.