RIDING TO WATCH: SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST
Why it matters: Scarborough Southwest dips down to the shores of Lake Ontario and runs up into the heart of the suburban, multicultural borough in eastern Toronto. The riding wasn’t touched by the violence that marred the G20 in its city five years ago, but that still-controversial event could define this key NDP-Liberal battleground.
New Democrat Dan Harris is trying to hold the seat against high-profile challenger Bill Blair, Toronto’s former police chief, who is perhaps best known for his role in the mass detentions at the G20 summit. Blair’s socalled “star candidacy” is seen as a test of the Liberals, since many were disappointed to see Blair promoted by leader Justin Trudeau around the same time the party voted for Anti-Terrorism Bill C-51.
The debate swirling around police carding in Toronto further compounds Blair’s struggle to unseat Harris.
“I see that as a fight between the NDP and the Liberals,” said Barry Kay, a Wilfrid Laurier University political science professor who helps run the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy website’s riding-level campaign predictions. He noted the riding was once held by Stephen Lewis but has gone back and forth between the Liberals and the NDP over the years.
If either party hopes to form the next government, it needs to pick up the bulk of the more than 50 seats in the Greater Toronto Area.
The Conservatives also need ridings in Toronto suburbs, but Kay said adjacent ridings such as Scarborough North are a better bet.
Key Demographic: Scarborough Southwest has almost as many residents in mid- to highrise apartments as in single-family homes. It’s also a riding of economic divides, with lower-than-average household incomes, higher-than normal unemployment (11.5 per cent in the 2011 census), fewer homeowners than the national average and a higher rate of immigration — nearly 46 per cent of residents immigrated to Canada, according to the 2011 census, compared with the national average of 20.6 per cent. The riding’s diversity means there are several key demographics to target — with the South Asian community being particularly significant.
Claim to Fame: To add fuel to the anti-Blair fire, Green party candidate Tommy Taylor is an activist who said the “G20 radicalized” him. He wrote a play that toured the country describing his experience being caught up in the mass arrests that marked the summit.
The Darkest Horse: Roshan Nallaratnam, the Conservative candidate, was chosen in a nomination race that Mark Towhey, a management consultant and political strategist with Ballacaine Strategy & Execution, said divided the local Tamil community — a community that helped Patrick Brown win the provincial PC leadership campaign Towhey worked on.
He said if that constituency can “coalesce behind (Nallaratnam) and generate the kind of energy and organization … he will be a potent force on the ground.” Nallaratnam is also a cop, so he goes up against his old boss.
A lot of disgruntled Conservatives in the area went NDP when the old PCs and Reform merged, Towhey said.
Tim Hortons or Starbucks: This riding would be firmly in the Tim Hortons category but, thanks to Toronto’s real estate market, it has growing pockets of Starbucks drinkers who grab a latte on their way to a downtown office.