A generational change in Canadian politics
It seems unlikely we will have another baby boomer prime minister, Mark Sutcliffe says
consider who will lead them in the future, they should accept that in four years or later, it’s unlikely Canadians will turn back the clock to bring in another baby boomer prime minister.
Time is marching on. In the next federal election, for the first time there will be eligible voters who were born in the 21st century. A small cohort of people who weren’t born at the time of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 will be allowed to vote.
Mulcair struggled to be the face of change in 2015. It’s unlikely he’ll be significantly more successful in 2019. Nathan Cullen, however, was born seven months after Trudeau. Although she lost her seat, Megan Leslie is another younger contender, about the same age as Cullen. They are more likely to appear fresh and relevant in 2019 than Mulcair.
As for the Conservatives, there are several prospective leaders who are just on the outer edge of the generational shift. At 47, both Lisa Raitt and Jason Kenney could be considered members of Trudeau’s generation. Peter MacKay has a young family, but he’s already turned 50 and is six years old than Trudeau. In four years, MacKay will be almost the age Stephen Harper is today as he leaves office. Tony Clement is already 54, a decade older than Trudeau.
On the other hand, James Moore, who is almost five years younger than Trudeau, and Michelle Rempel, who was born in the (early) 1980s and is a constant and candid presence on social media, are from the generation of Conservatives who will be relevant to a large number of voting Canadians four years — or eight years — from now.
Especially after this election, when for the first time a party went from third place to a majority government, it’s unwise to suggest that anything is impossible in Canadian politics. But it’s quite possible we will never see another prime minister who was born before 1965.
There has been more than just a change in government. A new generation is leading the country. It’s unlikely anyone older than Justin Trudeau will ever get another chance.
In the next federal election, for the first time there will be eligible voters who were born in the 21st century.
In the summer of 1930, Richard Bedford Bennett’s Conservatives were elected to a sweeping majority government, capturing almost 48 per cent of the vote and ousting Mackenzie King’s Liberals. It was a historic triumph for the Tories, who had languished in opposition for 24 of the previous 34 years.
It also might have been the best thing to happen the Liberals. Bennett’s failures during the Great Depression helped establish the Liberals as the natural governing party of the 20th century. King won again five years later and the Conservatives didn’t regain power until 1957.
The 1930 election made history for another reason: Bennett was four years older than King. It was the first time that Canadian voters chose a new prime minister who was born before his predecessor. It has happened only once since, when Jean Chrétien defeated Kim Campbell in 1993.
There have been five other times when power shifted from a younger prime minister to an older one, but two were internal transitions when the new leader was chosen without an election, both during the 1890s.
In three other cases, an older prime minister reclaimed power from the younger PM who had previously defeated him, such as when Macdonald beat Mackenzie for a second crack at the job or when Pierre Trudeau defeated Joe Clark in 1980 after losing to him in 1979.
But in almost 150 years, only twice have Canadians elected a first-time prime minister who wasn’t younger than the person he was replacing.
That’s an important consideration after an election in which demographics were clearly a factor. Justin Trudeau was more than just a few years younger than Stephen Harper and Tom Mulcair. He was born in the 1970s, they in the 1950s. As the Conservatives and the NDP