End of Liberal honeymoon already in sight

No relationship can feel new and exciting forever. In the words of John Cusack in High Fidelity, it’s not all lipstick and lingerie.

For the Liberals, two new opinion polls suggest that the honeymoon is drawing to a close and we are about to enter the “washed- out cotton underwear hanging in the bathroom” phase.

One survey by Navigator looks at Canadian attitudes to infrastructure spending. It suggests that there is overwhelming support for spending on public transit, social housing and green infrastructure, with 78 per cent of the 1,211 respondents saying they endorse it.

But that number declines dramatically when it is linked to a deficit figure — 51 per cent support spending that produces a $10-billion deficit; 48 per cent support pending that produces deficits of more than $10 billion; and just 36 per cent support deficits as high as $20 billion.

That should be a flashing red warning light for Bill Morneau, the finance minister, as he prepares his budget, given the near certainty that he is going to blow through the “modest” $10-billion deficit predicted in the Liberal election platform.

Another poll by Angus Reid Institute suggests that for many Canadians, like Robert Burns’ ploughman, the best laid schemes of mice and men have gone awry, leaving nothing but grief and pain, instead of promised joy.

Fewer than one in six Canadians say their standard of living is better now than it was a year ago, while twice as many (33 per cent) say it has got worse. Those numbers are, not surprisingly, highest in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Three-quarters of respondents are worried about the economy and 46 per cent say they are concerned they or someone in their household could lose their job.

The second part of the Angus Reid survey looks at the federal government’s response.

Morneau tried to preempt the question last week by laying the blame firmly at the door of his predecessors. “We inherited a deficit of $3 billion,” he said in the House of Commons.

Unfortunately, the Finance department’s fiscal monitor came out the next day, suggesting the federal treasury had a $1-billion surplus at the end of November.

We have, I think, reached the point where Canadians want more than tea and sympathy from this government.

Blaming the other guys isn’t going to cut it either. The Liberals rejoiced in the auditor general’s report Tuesday that revealed the shortcomings of the previous government.

When asked about the Liberal response to the oil price collapse, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was quick to point the finger at the Conservatives for creating the challenges the economy is now facing. But that is cold comfort to the 42 per cent of Canadians in the Angus Reid poll who are worried about the economy and think it is going to get worse.

The two polls suggest voters want the Liberals to operate according to the Goldilocks principle — just the right amount of fiscal stimulus to kick-start growth, without plunging the economy into recurring deficits.

The Angus Reid survey suggests that even among its own supporters, the Liberals won’t find much backing for deficits greater than $10 billion, with 56 per cent of Liberal voters saying the party should stick to its campaign promise.

The most recent federal horse-race polling shows the Liberals retaining a huge lead over their rivals — 45 per cent support, compared to 28 per cent for the Conservatives and 17 per cent for the New Democratic Party in a mid-January Abacus Data survey.

But the Grits are off their lofty postelection highs. The Angus Reid poll suggests the “middle class tax cut” touted by the prime minister in the Commons Tuesday has passed unnoticed — with only seven per cent of respondents claiming their tax has gone down.

CANADIANS WANT MORE THAN TEA AND SYMPATHY FROM THIS GOVERNMENT.

If Trudeau is keep things exciting, he is going to have to persuade Canadians that there are solutions attached to the sympathy — that the government is there to support the people who are worst affected; that infrastructure spending is smart, timely and productive; and that the “sustainable development” approach to pipeline yields results.

On the last point, Trudeau quietly chalked up a win last week when Montreal Mayor Denis Coderre suggested he might be open to changing his mind on opposition to the Energy East pipeline.

The week before, he had been a vociferous opponent of the pipeline to Saint John, N.B., citing environmental risks, but a 45-minute meeting with the prime minister persuaded him to temper his hostility. Whatever was said, it appears to have worked.

If that softly-softly approach, or the Davos wooing of global executives like Michael Evans, the Olympic gold-medal winning Canadian rower and new president of e-commerce powerhouse Alibaba, pays dividends, Trudeau will be able to keep the magic alive a little longer.

But the sunny days of his government’s swearing in have given way to the ice pellets of early February and the public mood has turned similarly bleak.