Races to watch
On Tuesday, voters in Oregon could elect America’s first bisexual governor, Nevada could send the first Latina to the Senate and the first Somali American could join a state legislature. In other words, there are a lot of interesting matchups between people who aren’t Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. The Democrats have a slim chance of retaking the House and a decent chance of claiming the Senate. Zane Schwartz examines some of the most interesting races to watch Tuesday night:
CONTROL OF THE SENATE
The Democrats need to win five seats to reclaim their majority in the Senate. There are six Republican seats they have a good chance of taking: Wisconsin, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Missouri, New Hampshire and North Carolina. If Hillary Clinton wins, they only need four new seats as the vice-president has a tiebreaker vote in the Senate. Initially, it looked as if Republican heavyweights John McCain in Arizona and Marco Rubio in Florida might be in trouble, but both now have modest leads. However, their losses would indicate a blowout night for the Democrats, who also want to hold onto the Nevada seat of Harry Reid, the former Senate majority leader. The latest poll in the state, conducted Oct. 27-Nov. 5, shows Democrat Catherine Cortez Mastro narrowly ahead of Republican Joe Heck. Her victory would make her the first Latina ever elected to the Senate. MAKING HISTORY
Democrat Kate Brown leads Republican Bud Pierce 42 to 33 per cent in their race for governor of Oregon. Brown has had the job since John Kitzhaber resigned in February 2015, after a corruption scandal. If she wins, she will be the first openly bisexual person elected governor in U.S. history. In Minneapolis, Ilhan Omar is poised to become the first Somali American state legislator. Omar surprised many when she defeated 44-year Democratic incumbent Phyllis Kahn in a threeway primary. In Minneapolis Sunday, Donald Trump called Somali migrants a “disaster.” The Somalia-born Omar spent four years in a refugee camp before coming to America. Polls indicate Trump will lose Minnesota. THE FIGHT FOR THE HOUSE
Even if Republicans lose the Senate and the presidency, they will almost certainly keep their majority in the House of Representatives — they have the largest majority there since 1929. Democrats need to win 34 new seats to take control. The Cook Political Report lists 16 seats held by Republicans as toss-ups, 11 as leaning Republican and 14 as likely Republican. If Democrats win Florida’s 18th district, which they used to hold, they will have an excellent night. Also in play: New Hampshire’s 1st district and Florida’s 13th, Republican seats in battleground states the Democrats have a good chance of carrying. KEY GUBERNATORIAL RACES
There are currently 31 Republican governors, 18 Democrats and one Independent. Republicans have a good chance of winning the governor’s mansion in tight races in Missouri, New Hampshire, West Virginia, Montana and Vermont. In Vermont, native son Bernie Sanders campaigned for Democrat Sue Minter, but Republican Phil Scott leads 47 to 40 per cent. Watch for former Montreal Expos pitcher and Liberty Union candidate Bill “Spaceman” Lee who is polling at four per cent. Liberty Union, which describes itself as a non-violent and socialist party, once nominated Bernie Sanders for governor. Lee’s slogan is: “So far left, we’re right.” SANDERS’ BIG TEST
After losing the Democratic presidential nomination, Sanders launched Our Revolution, a group dedicated to moving politics to the left by electing Democrats who share policy goals with Sanders. It has endorsed 104 candidates, from Adrian Fontes running for county recorder in Arizona to Russ Feingold running for Senate in Wisconsin and Zephyr Teachout in New York’s 19th congressional district. Although few are thought to have much chance of victory, Our Revolution argues it can be helpful in lower-profile races, such as Fontes’ bid for county recorder, where a little money makes a big difference. Tuesday will test that theory. WATCH THE THIRD PARTIES
Third-party candidates usually don’t make much of a difference. Gary Johnson, Libertarian presidential nominee, is averaging 4.7 per cent of the national vote. If he hits five per cent, the Libertarians will be eligible for public financing in the next election. Jill Stein, the Green party candidate, is averaging 1.8 per cent. Keep an eye on Utah where the third-party candidate, Evan McMullin, is about 14 per cent behind Trump. If McMullin takes Utah, he would be the first third-party candidate to win electoral college votes since 1968.