Portrait of an increasingly diverse Canada
StatsCan report provides food for thought on language, integration
If, as the saying goes, diversity is Canada’s strength, then Canadian cities are our national pillars. Recent population projections by Statistics Canada indicate that this is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future.
Statistics Canada looked at figures related to immigration, ethno-cultural diversity and language from 2011 and made projections to 2036. The numbers paint a compelling portrait of an evolving Canada, one that is poised to become simultaneously more diverse and urbanized.
In less than 20 years from now, half of all Canadians will be either immigrants or children of immigrants. We will see an ongoing shift in immigration patterns as the proportion of European newcomers is expected to decrease, while more than half of all immigrants are anticipated to be of Asian origin. Our linguistic fabric will change, too. By 2036, more than 25 per cent of the Canadian population will have a mother tongue other than English or French. What this may mean is that for many current and future immigrants, our official languages will likely be approached more as a resource — a skill required to get you a job, for example — than as a deep-seated marker of culture or identity.
The majority of future immigrants will likely continue to settle in Canada’s three main urban centres: Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. For the record, more than half of all Toronto residents are already born outside of Canada. In 2036, 34 to 39 per cent of all immigrants in Canada will live in Toronto and 12 to 13 per cent will be in Vancouver. Closer to home, 14 to 15 per cent of all Canada’s immigrants are expected to land here in Montreal.
Across Canada, the percentage of francophones is expected to drop to between 17 and 18 per cent, down from 21.3 per cent in 2011. In Quebec, the overall number of people who speak French at home — even if it isn’t their mother tongue — is expected to increase. At the same time, their proportion as a percentage of the population will decrease from 82 per cent to about 75 per cent.
What impact will this have on debate in Quebec, the only province with control over its immigration policies? It is well known that we face a unique set of challenges when it comes to balancing language and integration. Some believe fluency in French should top the list of criteria for immigrant selection. Others think job skills should take priority over language expertise when considering Quebec’s economic needs.
In terms of the new global economy, English and French remain important international languages. The increased dominance of English — particularly as a gateway to securing employment — versus the perceived erosion of French will present challenges for those who believe it is important to maintain Montreal as a francophone-majority city. There is already concern among some that francophones have already lost demographic weight, and fallen below 50 per cent of the on-island population.
Quebec must also continue to address the persistent unemployment gap between immigrants and the Canadianborn. Quebec has applied a modified version of the Canadian points system since 1991. A central goal is to increase the number of French-speaking immigrants. From 2009 to 2013, one immigrant in five came from Algeria or Morocco. Over 80 per cent of newcomers currently settle in Montreal. In 2011, the unemployment rate for immigrants in Quebec was double the rate for Canadian-born Quebecers, 11.9 per cent compared to 5.6 per cent. This was the highest of all the provinces. An additional 2016 study published by the Institut de recherche et d’informations socioéconomiques (IRIS) shows that newcomers continue to face discrimination on the job market. Many leave the province for other parts of Canada in search of employment opportunities.
As immigrants continue to settle mainly in our urban centres, the social, cultural and religious diversification of Canada’s long-standing official language populations will be most keenly felt in our cities. In Montreal — the only major metropolis in Quebec — these shifts are sure to generate ongoing political debate for some time to come.