Traffic fatality statistics take a shocking turn

In an accident, it’s all too often an unequal matchup, Glen Williams says.

Statistics released in January by the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) reveal a shocking reversal of fortune after years of steady decline in traffic fatalities.

Motor vehicle traffic fatalities rose by 8 per cent overall for the first nine months of 2016 in comparison with the same period the previous year. And that was after 2015 had witnessed a historic 9.3 per cent overall increase for the same time period in 2014, after a long period of decline.

These are U.S. statistics, but they should matter to Canadians, too. Our border is porous, the safety of our vehicles is regulated by the NHTSA and the demographics of our highways resemble those south of the border. Transport Canada statistics for 2015 and 2016, when released, are likely to reveal similar trends.

What explains this?

As they have politically, our southern neighbours have become more polarized in their choice of vehicles. Cars have got smaller. At the same time, there are more light vans and trucks on the road than ever before, a category that includes SUVs.

The trends have combined to increase the weight disparity between the vehicles on U.S. highways.

In a collision between two vehicles of unequal mass, the occupants of the smaller vehicle are far more likely to be killed.

“Vehicle Aggressivity” is the name given to a statistical measure of the overall risk of mortality posed by a particular vehicle striking another in a multi-vehicle collision, based on such factors as mass and manoeuvrability, and driver behaviour. The NHTSA reported in 1998 that light vans and trucks (LVTs) scored as high as 30:1 for aggressivity.

LVTs are inherently aggressive because of their mass, high centre of gravity and truck suspension. They are safest in their intended role, driven by people who depend upon their vehicles for work and understand their limits. They were never intended for personal transportation.

LTVs become particularly aggressive statistically with increased sales and an influx of first-time buyers who have no appreciation of their inferior handling characteristics. There has been a bonanza in LVT sales, including large SUVs in recent years, increasing by 10 per cent in 2014 and 12.7 in 2015.

If large SUVs are the most aggressive vehicles on our highways, smaller crossover SUVs are arguably among the least defensive vehicles. Detroit would have us believe crossovers have jeep DNA; their actual lineage extends only as far as the original minivan, the 1984 Dodge Caravan/Plymouth Voyageur.

The Caravan/Voyageur was the first unit body passenger vehicle to be classified as a“truck,” solely on the basis of its easily removable rear bench set. This classification allowed Chrysler to withhold safety features mandatory in passenger cars, such as head restraints and side door crash protection.

When the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) submitted 13 2013 model year crossover SUVs to its 40 m.p.h. small overlap asymmetric frontal collision barrier tests, 11 failed.

Manufacturers of crossover SUVs may have improved the crash performance of their cars in response to the IIHS tests, but we would not know that on the basis of their NHTSA ratings. The NHTSA safety ratings for crossover SUVs have not changed subsequent to the IIHS tests.

Crossover SUVs have nonetheless become North America’s family car, selling at a rate up to and exceeding five million units per year in the U.S. and 750,000 in Canada. And why not? Their overall NHTSA safety ratings betray no hint of the risks they may pose in a collision.

Meanwhile, fatalities increase as we crash into each other, in large SUVs which are unduly aggressive because of their size and inferior handling, and smaller vehicles, many of them demonstrably less crashworthy.

Manufacturers argue they are only providing the vehicles consumers want.

If consumers were better informed, they might want safer vehicles.