Budget gives Liberals a boost: poll
Quebec’s Liberal government is enjoying a post-budget honeymoon but most voters say the province still isn’t doing enough to fund schools and hospitals.
And a majority of Quebecers — 62 per cent — think the tax cuts in the March 28 budget were a politically motivated effort to woo voters in advance of the next election, due in October 2018.
Those are some of the conclusions of a poll conducted after the budget for the Montreal Gazette and Postmedia.
Mainstreet Research surveyed 2,520 respondents on March 29 and 30.
“The Quebec Liberals seem to be receiving a post-budget bump, they’re getting a nice honeymoon bump, but people are actually quite divided on the budget,” said Mainstreet executive vice-president David Valentin.
“I expected stronger numbers for the budget, given that there were tax cuts, but a lot of people are still not convinced. The number of people who are not sure what the actual impact is going to be for themselves and/or their family is quite high.”
After years of reining in spending, Finance Minister Carlos Leitão loosened the purse strings slightly in a budget that included modest tax cuts and more cash for education and health care.
In the poll, 39 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Premier Philippe Couillard’s government, five percentage points more than said they would do so in a survey two weeks earlier.
Support for the Parti Québécois dropped five points to 26 per cent, and the Coalition Avenir Québec fell four percentage points to 23 per cent. Buoyed by the arrival of star candidate Gabriel NadeauDubois, Québec solidaire saw support jump four points to 12 per cent.
Among francophones, who make up the majority of voters in most ridings, the PQ was first with 31 per cent, followed by the Liberals (30 per cent), the CAQ (26 per cent) and QS (14 per cent).
Quebecers seemed uncertain about the budget.
When asked whether they approve or disapprove, Quebecers were almost evenly split — 30 per cent gave it a thumbs-up, 29 per cent a thumbs-down and another 29 per cent weren’t sure. Twelve per cent said they hadn’t paid attention.
Non-francophones were the most likely to approve of the budget (43 per cent).
Respondents were also undecided about whether the budget is in Quebec’s long-term interest.
Thirty-six per cent of those polled said it was, 30 per cent said it wasn’t and the remaining 34 per cent were not sure.
Valentin said the fact that support for Couillard’s government went up, despite ambivalence about the budget, indicates that “the Liberals have been able to convey the message that they are good economic managers.
“People may not know the specifics (about the budget) but they do know they like the general direction.”
It was the government’s third consecutive balanced budget.
In at least two areas, however, Quebecers think the government should be doing more.
Most respondents said the government is not adequately funding health care (53 per cent) and education (56 per cent).
On voting intentions, the poll suggests the Liberals lead comfortably in their traditional bastion of greater Montreal region and are statistically tied with the PQ in the rest of Quebec.
The number of people who are not sure what the actual impact is going to be for themselves and/or their family is quite high.
In Quebec City, the CAQ leads (36 per cent), with the Liberals second at 28 per cent.
Valentin noted that the Liberals and Québec solidaire each have fresh selling points.
The arrival of former student leader Nadeau-Dubois — Québec Solidaire’s candidate in a byelection in Gouin for which a date has not been set — has reinvigorated the party, he noted.
And the Liberals may “be able to leverage the budget even more and do a persuasive sales job to all those people who are undecided about what this budget means right now.”
The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 1.95 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.