THE HISTORIC SUMMIT BETWEEN THE LEADERS OF NORTH KOREA AND THE U.S. PRODUCED A TWO-PAGE AGREEMENT TO ‘DENUCLEARIZE’ THE KOREAN PENINSULA. WHAT’S IN IT, WHAT’S MISSING, WHO WINS AND WHO LOSES.
Over the course of nearly five hours, Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un strolled, lunched and talked in a bid to ease decades of tensions between adversaries. The president praised Kim for entering into negotiations with the U.S., and called the meeting “a very great moment in the history of the world.” The North Korean leader said the summit document “heralds a new start, leaving the past behind.” So what happened at the summit and what does it mean?
DENUCLEARIZATION ON THE PENINSULA
The U.S. and North Korea agreed to seek “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” However, no deadline was set and the path to disarmament was left undefined. Trump said he thinks his North Korean counterpart will live up to it. “It’s very comprehensive,” the president said. “It’s going to happen.” Trump later told reporters aboard Air Force One that he believes Kim will deliver on his commitment to denuclearize, citing his experience with the dictator in the run-up to the summit. “From the time I’ve dealt with him, which is really starting like 90 days ago, it’s been very strong,” Trump said. “I think he wants to get it done.” Kim has “got a total plan” Trump added, without elaborating. Still, “we’re going to have to check it, and we will check.” The document doesn’t include the words “complete, verifiable and irreversible” — the baseline U.S. demand for denuclearization before lifting sanctions — and omits Kim’s previous pledges to halt missile and nuclear testing. “It greatly reduces the likelihood of armed conflict in the near future,” said Thomas Countryman, who was assistant secretary of state for international security and non-proliferation during the Obama administration. “But the document lacks substance. It says less than previous agreements the U.S. has reached with the DPRK, and leaves open key questions that would normally have been resolved prior to such a summit.”
WHAT U.S. ALLIES LOSE
Japan, the chief U.S. ally in the region, got none of what it wanted — Kim made no promise to address the issue of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea, and he offered no limits on his ballistic missile programs. Neither the U.S. nor the South Korean government would confirm that the Trump administration warned President Moon Jae In ahead of time about the decision to suspend exercises. A spokesman with Moon’s office, who asked not to be identified to discuss internal deliberations, said the government was still trying to understand Trump’s “exact meaning or intentions” with the military freeze. At the same time, the spokesman didn’t condemn the decision, and Seoul has repeatedly pressed for a cautious approach to North Korea rather than the hasty agreement that Trump and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had originally pursued.
WHAT CHINA WINS
China is certainly going to like the outcome of the summit. For years, Beijing has backed a strategy they call “dual suspension” or “freeze for freeze.” It calls for North Korea to suspend nuclear weapons testing in return for a suspension of U.S. military exercises in South Korea. And it got its wish. Trump said the United States would suspend “war games,” which he described as “expensive” and “very provocative.” It’s worth noting that Trump’s promise to suspend war games did not appear to come with a comparable concession from the North Korean side. Instead, North Korea simply reiterated an existing commitment to denuclearization without specifying what that means or when it could happen. That appears to be a win for Kim and his backers in Beijing. Also, Trump appears to have adapted some of China’s language — which Chinese diplomats will love. The U.S. has had a military presence in South Korea for decades, which it and South Korea have long maintained is necessary for defence — and as a deterrent to North Korean aggression. North Korea and China see the presence of U.S. troops in South Korea as a threat and an affront. When it comes to U.S.South Korea war games, the word “provocation” is usually coming from Pyongyang or Beijing, not the United States — let alone the U.S. president. “China’s objectives on the Korean Peninsula have been to maintain stability, encourage North Korea’s denuclearization, and reduce U.S. influence,” said Abraham Denmark, director of Asia program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. “Today, Beijing got everything that they wanted.”
‘WAR GAMES’ STILL ON
At the U.S. military command in South Korea, officials reacted with uncertainty to the suspension of the military exercises. Col. Jennifer Lovett, a spokeswoman, said the command “has received no updated guidance on execution or cessation of training exercises.” Those exercises include the Ulchi Freedom Guardian drills scheduled for August. “We will continue with our current military posture” until further notice, she said. In Washington, officials at the Pentagon, State Department and White House were scrambling to figure out exactly the impact of Trump’s comments.
SOLDIERS’ REMAINS
Nestled in the document was a short bullet point that addresses a long-running concern of U.S. veterans groups: the recovery of the remains of thousands of American soldiers who were killed or captured in North Korea during the Korean War. The two countries agreed to “commit” to recovering the remains of fallen soldiers, “including the immediate repatriation of those already identified,” according to the document. The remains of 5,300 American soldiers who were killed or captured in North Korea during the war remain unaccounted for north of the demilitarized zone, resting in cemeteries, former labour camps and battle sites. From 1990 to 2005, joint U.S.-North Korean search teams repatriated 229 sets of remains. But the cooperation between the United States and North Korea was abruptly suspended in 2005 as political relations deteriorated. Last week, South Korean President Moon expressed hope that Pyongyang might allow teams to start recovering the remains of South Korean soldiers. More than 120,000 South Korean soldiers who fought in the war remain unaccounted for, many thought to be lost on the North Korean side.