More than ever, Habs must re-sign Pacioretty

Domi gives team a playmaker but captain is a solid goal scorer, writes Marc Dumont.

For the third June in a row, Canadiens general manager Marc Bergevin has pulled off a major trade involving one of the team’s top drafted players.

This time around he sent Alex Galchenyuk, the third overall pick in the 2012 draft, to the Arizona Coyotes in exchange for small, yet feisty, forward Max Domi. The move came after P.K. Subban (drafted No. 43 in 2007) and Mikhail Sergachev (No. 9 in 2016) were sent packing the last two years.

At first glance, the Galchenyuk deal might seem like another questionable trade in terms of value, but the numbers suggest Domi will immediately become one of the best playmakers on the team, if not the best.

Considering the Canadiens’ struggles to hit the back of the net, it’s a legitimate concern the team traded one of its best goal scorers for a player who scored only nine last season, including four into an empty net.

However, Domi brings a unique skill set to the table. His passing is undeniably efficient and often leads to goals.

Last year he finished 33rd in the league in terms of assists per 60 minutes of ice time. What’s more, the majority of his assists were primary, indicating his passes were generally the catalyst to scoring opportunities for the Coyotes.

Domi finished 16th in the NHL when it comes to primary assists per 60, ahead of such players as Evgeni Malkin and Johnny Gaudreau. That’s not to say he’s more skilled than the aforementioned players, but he did produce more primary assists in the ice time he was given.

In fact, compared to the Canadiens’ leaders in assists last season, Domi was, by far, the best playmaker.

No one came close to matching his primary assist output, and Domi’s passes were concentrated in high-danger areas, meaning the opposing goaltenders were forced to adapt, leaving them open to high danger goals. A moving goalie is a vulnerable goalie. This is an area in which the Canadiens failed to produce much offence last season — goalies had way too much time to anticipate scoring chances and get into position.

However, the Canadiens traded a key sniper in Galchenyuk, leaving many to wonder who will score next season.

While Bergevin is surely not done making changes to his team, he’d be wise to consider resigning captain Max Pacioretty.

Pacioretty, who has been subjected to an endless stream of rumours and harsh criticism, is not only the best goal scorer on the team during the last decade, he also is one of the best even-strength goal scorers in the league.

There’s no denying Pacioretty had a disappointing campaign in 2017-18, scoring only 17 goals and 20 assists in 64 games. Considering every player on the roster not named Brendan Gallagher had a rough year, it’s important to consider Pacioretty’s value to the franchise. To do so, we need to look at the numbers beyond the disappointing season that saw the Canadiens finish among the worst teams in the league.

Since 2011-12, Pacioretty has scored almost 15 per cent of Montreal’s total goals (Goal %), 14.3 per cent of their evenstrength goals (ES Goal %), and has participated in 28.1 per cent of Montreal’s scoring plays (Goal Part. %). (See chart above.)

And while it’s true Pacioretty is soon to be on the wrong side of 30 in a league that is putting the focus on younger players, he’s a volume shooter, which bodes well for his goal-scoring prowess moving forward.

A lot like Alex Ovechkin, Pacioretty scores because of the sheer volume of shots he takes, rather than depending on accuracy.

Last season, in a bid to become a more complete player, he tried to change his game. In the past, many criticized him for not being a physical presence on the ice, so last year he obliged by upping his hits per 60 ratio from 2.95 the previous season to 7.6 in 2017-18.

The result was a much more physical player who endured his worst offensive season in more than five years. While his hits went up, his shots, individual scoring chances and goals plummeted.

Pacioretty needs to ignore the noise and return to the what worked for him: shots, shots, and more shots.

Pacioretty is a one-dimensional player. But that dimension is most crucial when it comes to winning hockey games, and he’s one of the best in the business at it.

It’s no coincidence the Canadiens’ worst goal output since the 2012-2013 lockout happened the same year Pacioretty struggled.

If Bergevin is convinced his team can remain competitive in the foreseeable future, which seems to be the case, he really can’t afford to lose his key sniper, despite the downtick in offence last season.

Signing Pacioretty would go a long way toward ensuring the Canadiens can avoid being one of the worst goal-scoring teams in the league.

Once that’s done, all he needs to do is acquire the coveted No. 1 centre that Pacioretty, and more importantly the team, has lacked for well over a decade.

And then maybe a top pairing defenceman.

And then ...

Well, you get the point.

Marc Dumont is an analyst and editor for The Athletic Montreal. Statistics courtesy of naturalstattrick.com.