THE SHIFT TO ELECTRIC CARS
What will it take for battery-powered vehiCles to go mainstream? Power and range fears remain roadbloCks, keeping sales idling in QuebeC. But inCentives are paving the way forward. René Bruemmer asks the experts: Is now the time to buy?
You don’t have the vibrations, you only have the wheels rolling on the pavement. So if you close your windows, you don’t hear anything.
Driven by a love for his planet and a concern for his pocketbook, George Giannelis made the switch to an all-electric vehicle last summer.
“Best car I ever had,” he says, with the gentle fervour of the recently converted. “For somebody who comes from driving a regular car, it’s a whole new driving experience, because you don’t have the vibrations, you only have the wheels rolling on the pavement. So if you close your windows, you don’t hear anything. It’s just quiet.”
Not having to fill up at gas stations is also soothing. It costs him about $1 a day to charge his Nissan Leaf. A television cameraman for Radio-Canada who has long been concerned with environmental issues, Giannelis would prefer not to have a car at all. But the need to get around quickly coupled with the inadequacies of the public transit system meant he needed to find the next-best green alternative.
Quebec’s top-selling all-electric car is the Nissan Leaf, which retails for about $36,000 plus taxes (minus an $8,000 government rebate). Since that was beyond his budget, Giannelis found a used 2015 Leaf selling for $15,000 with 30,000 kilometres on it.
Because his car can only travel about 150 kilometres on a full charge (and closer to 100 kilometres in the winter), he suffered some initial “range fear” — the worry he would run out of current and get stranded. The concern faded when he realized his typical return trip around town was less than 50 kilometres. For a recent weekend getaway to Boston, he rented a conventional car, splitting the $300 tab three ways with his co-passengers.
Giannelis figures he will have saved enough on gas, oil changes and maintenance expenses in four years to cover the excess costs of buying electric. After that he’ll be making money. More importantly, he’s investing in something less polluting.
“I feel like I’m doing my part,” he said.
Giannelis is the poster boy for the electric vehicle transformation Quebec is hoping to incite to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The province set an ambitious target of getting 100,000 electric vehicles (either full electric or plug-in electric/gas hybrids) on its roads by 2020. It would like to see electric vehicles account for one-third of all new vehicle sales by 2030, a figure already attained in Norway, the world leader in electric car sales.
There are signs of hope, like the dealership in Rawdon, 80 kilometres north of Montreal, where electric vehicles make up 50 per cent of sales, the top seller in Canada. Quebecers were until recently the biggest buyers of electric vehicles in Canada, narrowly edged out by Ontario in 2017. Gas prices hovering near $1.50 a litre are an added incentive.
And yet the electric vehicle revolution is idling rather than accelerating, both in Quebec and across North America.
Two years from Quebec’s selfimposed deadline of 100,000, only 24,000 electric vehicles (EVs) are on its roads. Those EVs account for only two per cent of overall automotive sales in the province.
This despite the fact Quebec has the cheapest electricity rates in North America derived from clean hydroelectric power. Quebec has instituted aggressive policies that include hefty government rebates on vehicle purchases ($8,000 for an all-electric car, $4,000 for an electric-gas hybrid) and legislation unique among Canadian provinces that mandates that 3.5 per cent of all 2018 model year vehicles sold must be zero-emissions automobiles. And it has a growing number of apostles like Giannelis happy to preach the benefits.
So why isn’t the movement taking
off ? And is now the right time to buy an electric car? The expert opinion is divided.
Price is the main impediment slowing the shift to mass consumption. Billions spent on research and development coupled with expensive batteries mean the initial cost for EVs is relatively steep.
The Chevy Volt, Quebec’s topselling electric-gas hybrid, retails for $41,000 plus tax, while the fully electric 2018 Nissan Leaf costs $36,000. A similarly equipped conventional Honda Civic can be had for $23,000.
Limited supplies at dealerships can translate into a wait of several months to acquire an electric car, and difficulty even getting a test drive, turning off buyers. Dealers working on commission are more apt to steer clients toward cheaper conventional cars that sell fast and require more maintenance than electric vehicles, guaranteeing future income for repairs.
What buyers don’t realize is that EVs are significantly less expensive in the long run, said Martin Archambault, spokesperson for the Quebec Electrical Vehicle Association (AVEQ).
“It’s all about a displacement of costs,” he said. “We pay more when we buy, but we spend a lot less over time.”
The association calculates the cost difference between the Leaf and the standard Civic will even out over four years, based on 20,000 kilometres a year of driving at $1.20 a litre, with savings on gasoline of almost $2,000 a year, insurance and oil changes factored in. The costs of electricity and installing a $2,000 charger at the house for the Leaf (offset by government grants) are included in the equation. Plus the $8,000 rebate from Quebec. Savings are less drastic for people who put less mileage on their cars, however.
After eight years owning a Leaf, the association estimates the typical buyer would be $8,348 ahead.
“And that’s with gas at $1.20 a litre,” Archambault noted. “At $1.40 or $1.50, as it is now, the savings come even more quickly.”
Hydro- Québec’s online calculator estimates the cost of driving a conventional compact car for 100 kilometres is $10.65. For an electric car, the cost is $2.10.
Range fear is the EV’s secondgreatest enemy. Even with today ’s more powerful batteries, cars like the 2018 Leaf have a range of only 240 kilometres, which gives pause to those who drive to Toronto occasionally or their cottages on the weekend.
“Most people are not prepared to deal with the limitations on longdistance travel,” said George Iny, president of the Automobile Protection Association. “Most of us buy a car based on our needs for two weeks a year,” be it the summer trip to Virginia Beach, or the time spent chauffeuring visiting relatives to the local attractions. Drivers balk at the idea of having to line up at charging stations along the way.
Yet the average Canadian drives only 41 kilometres a day, far within the range of an electric car. The makers of EVs say their cars meet 95 per cent of most drivers’ needs. They’re pushing for two-car families to think of buying an EV as their secondary car, and using the primary one for longer trips.
“Our research has shown it quickly becomes the first car,” said François Lefèvre, chief marketing manager for electric vehicles for Nissan Canada. “People think their driving experience is going to be compromised when they go electric, when in fact it’s enhanced.”
A Motor Trend Magazine test found the Tesla S clocked 0 to 60 miles per hour in 2.28 seconds, faster than Ferrari and Porsche, or any other mass-production vehicle on the market.
Automakers are not in favour of the forced sale of electric cars mandated by Quebec. The Canadian Automobile Dealers Association came out strongly against the idea, accusing the government of trying to create demand where it doesn’t exist. Sales of smaller sport-utility vehicles (SUVs), vans and light-duty trucks are way up in Canada, making up 69 per cent of the overall market share, while those for compact cars are down. But there are very few electric SUVs or trucks on the market yet, because the cost of putting in large batteries needed to propel heavy vehicles is prohibitive. When comparing year-overyear sales, the figures for electric vehicles are “on fire,” Nissan Leaf ’s Lefèvre said, jumping 44 per cent in Quebec in 2017 over the previous year. In Ontario, which started offering a $14,000 grant last year, sales jumped 120 per cent. Overall, however, sales are anemic compared to those of conventional cars. There were a record 18,564 electric cars sold across Canada last year, up 68 per cent from 2016, The Canadian Press reported. In 2017, Canadians bought just over two million cars, up 4.8 per cent from the previous year. Electric cars made up 1.4 per cent of those purchases. Quebec registered the highest percentage of EVs bought of any province, at 2.2 per cent. Groups like Quebec environmental watchdog Équiterre accuse automakers of stonewalling on EVs because profit margins are higher on larger, gas-powered automobiles. Advertising for pickup trucks and SUVs is ubiquitous, they note, whereas for EVs it’s practically non-existent. Canada has also been faulted for not doing enough, given that transportation accounts for 24 per cent of all of its greenhouse gas emissions. Studies commissioned by Équiterre found the government’s game plan of providing subsidies and installing more charging stations wouldn’t be enough to promote EV ownership beyond 6 to 15 per cent of the market by 2030. They advocate the government mandate that zero-emissions vehicles make up at least 20 per cent of new vehicle market share by 2030. The federal government has promised to develop a national strategy to increase the number of zero-emissions vehicles on the road by 2018. Much of the fault also lies with consumers, Iny of the APA notes. Even though compact cars have increased their fuel efficiency by 30 per cent since 2008, Canadians are moving instead to larger vehicles. Quebecers bought more SUVs and light trucks than cars last year, putting convenience and status ahead of ecology as gas prices have remained mostly stable.
“Our concerns with the environment are not transferring to our vehicle purchases,” Iny said, noting that overall sales of automobiles are way up in Canada. “There’s a difference between what we think, and what we are doing. It’s crazy what we’re doing. You would think that Elon Musk (developer of the Tesla) dominates what we buy. But it’s only what we’re thinking. It’s not what we’re buying.”
Despite current trends, hopes for an EV revolution remain. Internationally, any significant jumps toward electric-vehicle acceptance have been mostly due to government policy, Iny notes.
Nearly one in three cars sold in Norway are now plug-in models thanks to the country’s inexpensive hydropower and significant tax incentives.
Quebec’s zero-emissions mandates represent a push in that direction, as do perks granted to EV owners, like free tolls and ferry crossings and permission to drive in faster-moving reserved lanes.
By installing 200 charging stations on its territory every year, Montreal is on track to have the most of any North American municipality by the end of 2018. It plans to have 1,000 charging stations by 2020. Montreal purchased 100 Nissan Leafs in April for its municipal fleet. And Laval recently became the first city in Canada to offer a $2,000 grant to residents who purchase an all-electric car.
The speed of adoption of EVs typically idles before hitting an exponential curve, Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard told the Montreal Gazette. To get there, Quebec needs to see slightly less expensive cars, keep up the government incentives and mandates in place, and add charging stations, he said.
“I am telling people that if they can afford it, with support from the government, just to think about the alternative,” he said. “When you fill up with gas, where do you send the money? When you charge it, the money stays here in Quebec.”
Battery prices ($5,500 for a Nissan Leaf, for example) have dropped by 50 per cent since 2011, analysts at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch reported. They are now predicting electric vehicles will be cheaper than conventional cars by 2024.
Archambault of AVEQ forecasts battery range will increase greatly in the next five to 10 years. That, along with government incentives and mandates, will boost sales, he said. But he counsels potential consumers to do the math first.
“Every buyer’s needs are different,” he said. “With some, who don’t drive as much, I say wait a few years, or you might be disappointed.”
At the Automobile Protection Agency, the advice is also to wait awhile, or weigh the alternatives.
“If it’s going to be your primary car, then no,” said Iny. “Most people are not prepared to deal with the limits on long-distance travel. Having said that, we do like the plug-in hybrids (like the Chevy Volt, which has a range of over 500 kilometres) if you have a place to plug in overnight. So you can run on electricity in town, and switch to gas when you need.”
The new Toyota Prius Prime plug-in hybrid is also recommended by the APA, as are non-plug-in hybrids like the Prius, Hyundai Ioniq and Kia Niro.
“These vehicles will cover their excess costs at the six- or sevenyear mark. But that’s not where the razzle dazzle is these days,” Iny said.
In Rawdon, the electric car capital of Canada, it took Bourgeois Chevrolet dealership five years to get to the point where electric cars make up 50 per cent of its sales. The dealership sold 525 of them last year, an average of one or two a day. The Chevy Volt is the biggest seller. Second-hand electric Chevrolet Sparks, imported from the U.S. and selling for about $15,000 with the $4,000 government rebate factored in, are also popular.
The biggest factors in sales have been staff that are well-trained in the science of EVs, offering clients testing periods of a few days to see if the cars meet their needs (and to seduce them), and customers who have neighbours or colleagues with electric cars who promote them.
Studies have shown more than 70 per cent of Canadian consumers are unaware of how electric vehicles work. In Rawdon, that’s changing.
“Our first customers were people who were very informed about electric car technology,” said coowner Hugo Jeanson. “Today’s it’s Mr. and Mrs. Everyone that’s coming in to buy.”
Still, Jeanson said it will be a while before the movement picks up steam.
“It’s been 100, even 125 years that the gas-powered car exists. It’s been developed over generations. We are seeing a new enthusiasm for electric cars. But you can’t change the world in five years.”
People think their driving experience is going to be compromised when they go electric, when in fact it’s enhanced.