POPULARITY CONTEST

Sales of Canada’s 10 most popular U.S.-made vehicles could feel the effects of added tariffs as trade dispute heats up

Based on recent history, U.S. President Donald Trump’s idea of applying 25 per cent tariffs on vehicles imported to the United States can’t be taken as an idle threat. Such a trade barrier would pose enormous problems for automakers of virtually every nationality, as the auto industry has long since become a global business.

Consider the fact that, according to Cars.com, four of the 10 most popular American-made vehicles in 2018 are products built by Japan-based Honda: Odyssey, Ridgeline, Pilot, and MDX. Those are hardly Detroit cars in the traditional sense, yet based on parts content, assembly location, engine and transmission sourcing, and factory jobs, the only vehicle more Americanmade than the Honda Odyssey is the Jeep Cherokee.

That Jeep Cherokee is on this list of the most popular American-made vehicles in Canada, a list predictably stuffed with pickup trucks and SUVs. It’s not unreasonable to expect that tariffs on Canadian vehicles heading into the United States could be followed by tariffs on U.S.-built vehicles coming into Canada.

Measuring the economic impact of such trade barriers is a highly speculative study, best left to highly trained financial forecasters. We can, however, look back at what’s already occurred in the first half of 2018 to see which vehicles would be most affected in the event of a deeper automotive trade dispute.

The numbers are staggering. The 10 most popular U.S.-built vehicles in Canada account for more than 27 per cent of new vehicle demand.

10

Ford Explorer:

9,321, up six per cent Assembled in Chicago, the Ford Explorer crosses the Canadian border as a finished product and attracts more total sales than any other three-row utility vehicle. The Explorer’s growth rate late in its fifth-generation’s life cycle has been impressive. Canadian Explorer sales jumped 66 per cent between 2011 and 2017

9

Jeep Cherokee:

11,234, up 0.3 per cent

If at first the design seemed offputting, it quickly became clear that the modern Jeep Cherokee would find plenty of buyers who appreciated its unique face. Sales of the latest Cherokee peaked in 2016, its third full year, but then plunged in 2017 as Jeep lost nearly a quarter of its bestseller’s volume. Face-lifted and updated under the skin for the 2019 model year, the Cherokee now seems to have plugged the dam and sales have levelled off. In fact, June volume reached an 11-month high.

8

Chevrolet Cruze:

14,448, down seven per cent

The Cruze drew the ire of President Trump early last year over questions of its true madein-America status. (A slice of Cruze production takes place in Mexico.) Boosted somewhat by the new hatchback model last year, Cruze sales increased after consecutive years of sharp decline. But in 2018, the Cruze is in a losing battle against more popular compacts such as the Canadian-built Honda Civic and Toyota Corolla.

7

Hyundai Elantra:

20,596, down 13 per cent

The Alabama-built Hyundai Elantra is one of only two vehicles on this list not bearing the weight of a Detroit-based badge. The Elantra once stood a fair shot of unseating the Honda Civic as Canada’s best-selling car; the Hyundai ranked second in six consecutive years from 2011 through 2016. But the Elantra is now a distant third among car sales in Canada, attracting 2,100 fewer buyers than the Civic each month. Elantra popularity has plunged 27 per cent since its 2013 peak.

6

Nissan Rogue:

22,404, down one per cent

As Canada’s fourth-best-selling SUV/crossover, the Nissan Rogue now splits some of its demand with the Nissan Qashqai, which arrived in Canada early last year. The duo’s combined efforts produce nearly half of the Nissan brand’s volume in Canada, albeit now with slightly fewer sales of the largely Tennessee-built Rogue.

5

Ford Escape:

23,612, up one per cent

A century after assembly of the Model T began in Louisville, Kentucky, Ford began building Escapes at the (obviously modernized) plant in 2012. The Escape shares the facility with the Lincoln MKC, which attracts one Canadian buyer for every 21 Escapes sold. Long the topselling utility vehicle in Canada, the Escape lost that honour in 2016 after losing 11 per cent of its volume over two years.

4

GMC Sierra:

29,765, down five per cent

With production split between Michigan, Illinois, and Guanajuato, Mexico, the GMC Sierra (like its Chevrolet Silverado twin) isn’t exclusively a U.S.-built vehicle. Yet this full-size pickup truck, a distinct part of American auto culture, does a far better job of earning market share in Canada than it does in the U.S. Nine per cent of full-size pickups sold in the U.S. are Sierras; 16 per cent of full-size pickups sold in Canada are Sierras.

3

Chevrolet Silverado: 30,210, up eight per cent

Hugely important to General Motors’ coffers, the Chevrolet Silverado and its GMC Sierra twin generate four out of every 10 GM Canada sales. That’s way up from a decade ago, when the two trucks brought in slightly less than one in five GM Canada sales. The Silverado is tracking toward its best year of Canadian sales in history, and is stealing plenty of market share from the more popular Ram and Ford F- Series pickup trucks in the process.

2

Ram pickup:

48,659, down 16 per cent Production of the Ram line of pickup trucks is shared by assembly plants in Sterling Heights and Warren, Michigan, plus a facility in Saltillo, Mexico. A year ago, it seemed necessary for Fiat Chrysler Automobiles to produce huge numbers of Ram trucks because sales hit record highs in the U.S. and Canada. In 2018’s first six months, Canadian volume has taken a major 16 per cent hit, and U.S. Ram sales are down seven per cent as the company seeks to determine the best means of transitioning from one generation of trucks to the next. 1

Ford F-Series:

72,308 down 8 per cent

Since 2009, the Ford F-Series line of pickup trucks has been the bestselling vehicle in Canada. That streak — which will undoubtedly continue in the 2018 calendar year — included year-over-year growth in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017. F-Series sales last year were 91 per cent higher than when the streak began, though it appears as though the chance of another year of growth is unlikely. Sustaining last year’s pace of 13,000 monthly F-Series sales in Canada isn’t easy. Ford Canada is selling roughly 12,000 per month in 2018.

Driving.ca