Why you should watch Monday’s English debate

Monday ’s debate will be historic — it’s the first time Quebec political leaders will face off in English on TV during an election.

But let’s be frank: it probably won’t change enough minds to make a dent in the final result.

Here’s the percentage of nonfrancophones who said they would vote for each party in the latest Léger poll for the Montreal Gazette and Le Devoir.

70 per cent: Liberal

11 per cent: Coalition Avenir Québec

7 per cent: Parti Québécois

7 per cent: Québec solidaire

Anglophone voters have a minimal impact on overall results in any case. As columnist Don Macpherson recently pointed out, in 112 of Quebec’s 125 ridings, people who most often speak French at home are in the majority.

But here’s why you should watch: Jean-François Lisée, despite ■ being the leader of a party that is anathema to many Englishspeaking Quebecers, has the best command of the English language. The Parti Québécois honcho will have to explain his plan to compel anglophone students to attend French CEGEPs for a semester — preferably far from Montreal.

Manon Massé probably will win ■ points for showing up and trying to communicate in English. Though the Québec solidaire co-spokesperson struggles with the language, she makes a valiant effort when reporters ask her questions in English. She hopes to make inroads among anglos even as she dreams of separating Quebec from Canada.

François Legault’s English ■ improved as he courted anglophones but the former PQ minister recently admitted he now doesn’t expect many of them to vote for him. The Coalition Avenir Québec boss will have to convince anglophones, many of them with immigrant roots, to support his plan to have immigrants expelled who can’t learn French in three years, and agree with his recent dire warning that “our grandchildren” won’t be able to speak French.

Philippe Couillard should be sitting ■ pretty because he has the nonfrancophone vote locked down. But the Liberal leader will have some explaining to do. Remember his decision to support a National Assembly motion denouncing the use of “bonjour/hi” by clerks in Montreal stores and restaurants? And it was only in the run-up to the election that he got around to assigning a minister to be responsible for relations with the English-speaking community.

The debate starts at 5:30 p.m. It will be presented at montrealgazette.com, on CTV, CBC-TV and radio, Global, City and CJAD.

WHO WON?

It can take a few days for people to digest the debate and figure out who scored the most points. But two high-profile pundits are ready to crown a winner. Politician turned-commentator Mario Dumont and longtime political columnist Michel David think Lisée came out on top — but not by much.

In the Journal de Montréal, Dumont said Lisée’s attacks on Couillard’s record helped him grab the attention of viewers. In Le Devoir, David gave Lisée a B, Legault and Couillard a B- and Massé a C-.

CAQ SLIPS

It does not reflect any impact Thursday ’s debate might have had or the possible effect of Legault’s recent emphasis on immigration, but a new projection from election-forecast site Qc125.com shows the CAQ slipping into minority territory.

A party needs 63 of the 125 seats in the National Assembly to win a majority. Based on recent poll results, Qc125 says the most likely scenario is that the CAQ would end with just 62 ridings.