Here’s what you missed in the debates
Everything hinges on ‘strategic voters’ as politicians cast net for votes
After four weeks, three debates, 4,700 news stories, 150 tracking polls and several François Legaffes, the Quebec election has gotten exciting.
The Confused CAQ has plunged in recent polls, and the Lacklustre Liberals are suddenly running even. How did we get here from there?
PHASE 1: THE CANDIDATES
For 11 months François Legault was Quebec’s premier-in-waiting, CAQ -ling over his lead in the polls. But in recent weeks he’s looked agitated, confused and not very premier-like.
Meanwhile, Philippe Couillard has looked the part in comparison, so quiet and unemotional he’s practically invisible. That said, Couillard’s personal popularity remains dismal among francophones, only 18 per cent in a massive Leger poll.
Is Couillard the Kathleen Wynne of Quebec, who just can’t win? Or a comeback kid like the one from Shawinigan?
The PQ’s smooth-talking Jean-François Lisée easily won the first two debates, but got egg in his face-to face with Manon Massé in the third.
Still, the slippery-tongued Lisée changes positions and principles so often he could sell federalism to sovereignists. I wish he’d work for Ottawa and talk Trump into Free Trade.
Québec solidaire’s Massé has been the most genuine and compassionate candidate and she gets the highest “trust” level in the Leger poll.
If her left-wing party had gone sovereignty-lite and NDP-like, she might just be, like winning.
PHASE 2: THE DEBATES
The English debate was really impressive, simply because we actually had one for the first time.
All four leaders graciously agreed to it and sometimes sweated bullets, communicating bravely in their second language, particularly Legault and Massé.
The French media routinely described the leaders as debating in “the language of Shakespeare.” Frankly, it wasn’t Hamlet — but all four leaders’ English impressed me more than Trump’s or Ford’s.
So, merci!
If you missed the debates, here’s my hurried history of what really happened that no one else dares to print.
Moderator: Thank you all for being here in this best of three matches. Now remember: no biting, no scratching, no blogging, no coaching. GO!
Philippe Couillard: Bonjour, bonjour, bonjour! Sorry which debate is this? … English? Well then: Bonjour-hi everyone! Howdy folks!
In just four years my Liberal government has created 11,753,947.34 jobs with an aggregate post-recessionary fiscal debt reduction of $353.61 trillion and an average excess fat loss of 1.37 pounds per citizen.
In addition we’ve … hmm … excuse me while I study my notes for more figures and look skeptically at Mr. Legault, who frightens me … He really does.
François Legault: Enough facts, Mr. Couillard! We all know the facts.
Your immigration policy is disgraceful … 26 per cent of our 52,000 immigrants leave for other provinces — 26 per cent, Mr. Couillard! And … oops … I’ve just been handed this recent Quebec immigration report that shows the figure is now only 15 per cent.
Hmmm…uh…er…um…well… uhhh … ayoi — help!
(Pause for water).
OK, Mr. Couillard, so I make some mistakes — I’m not a brain surgeon. That’s why the CAQ will reduce immigration by 10,000 people, down to just 42,000.
But using our magic values test and French tests, we will actually keep 45,000 of those 42,000 immigrants, perhaps even 52,000.
And please don’t question my math, I’m an accountant.
Jean-François Lisée: I’m appalled Mr. Legault, appalled to hear you talk of values tests … even though, yes, I did strongly support Madame Marois’s Charter of Values in the New York Times — but I didn’t really believe in it in my heart.
Just as I didn’t really believe it when I said we should merge the French and English CEGEPs … And I didn’t mean it when I said Quebec should separate — though I do mean it. Or I did … But not this election, maybe next one — or the one after, depending what the polls say.
Anyway, merci, thank you and by the way, for you English people watching: bonjour-hi and byebye. You know I love you (kiss, kiss, kiss).
Manon Massé: Yak, yak, yak that’s all you men do. But we in Québec solidaire, we don’t yak, we act!
We will give every Quebecer free transit, free dental care, free housing, free daycare, free university, free electricity, free water, free air, free pot and free love … and it won’t cost you a penny.
Does that sound too good to be true, or what?
The PQ’s smooth-talking Jean-François Lisée easily won the first two debates, but got egg in his face-to face with Manon Massé in the third.
PHASE 3: THE POLLSTERS
With nine days to the election, our polls are racing. Many Quebecers minutely study every new poll, then shift their allegiances daily, depending who’s leading.
These are called “strategic voters” and include about half of Quebecers. So with the Liberals suddenly up in the polls, everything now hinges on these swing voters. Will they:
A) Jump on the Liberal bandwagon and re-elect Couillard.
B) Leap back to Legault just to stop the Liberals.
C) Decide they don’t like either option — and vote for a likable protest candidate who has no chance to win.
And that’s how Manon Massé will become premier of Quebec.