BRITAIN AT AN ‘IMPASSE’
TUESDAY NIGHT’S HUMILIATING DEFEAT FOR BRITISH PRIME MINISTER THERESA MAY LEAVES MANY UNANSWERED QUESTIONS OVER BREXIT. HERE ARE SOME OF THE MAJOR ISSUES IN PLAY:
THE ‘HATED’ BACKSTOP
In the event of Brexit, no one wants a hard border between Northern Ireland (part of the U.K.) and the Republic of Ireland (EU). But the mechanism chosen by the EU and Theresa May is universally hated. Under May’s deal, Britain and the EU have until 2020 to reach a new permanent trade deal. If no agreement is reached, the “backstop” is triggered — keeping the U.K. in a customs union with the EU, and an open Irish border.
Politicians favouring Brexit complain that Britain wouldn’t be able to get out of the backstop unilaterally; the deal requires the mutual agreement of both sides. Lawmakers who want to remain close to the EU dislike it because Britain would be subject to customs and trade rules over which it has no say. May’s political allies from Northern Ireland, the Democratic Unionist Party, also object because the backstop treats Northern Ireland differently from other parts of the U.K. The party says that frays the bond between Northern Ireland and the rest of the country.
DELAY BREXIT
Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon gives any EU member state the right to quit. The U.K. triggered this two years ago with a date of Mar. 29, 2019, to actually leave. In the last few weeks, EU officials have started to talk about a willingness to extend Article 50 (at least until July). An extension could open the way for a revised deal (possible) or a new deal (unlikely). But it would also allow for more consideration to be given to other scenarios — such as a second referendum.
ANOTHER VOTE?
“If you can’t resolve the impasse here in Westminster, than you have to refer it back to the people,” Labour Party lawmaker Chuka Umunna said Tuesday. One option — which appears to be gaining traction — is for a second referendum, The People’s Vote. Under this scenario, the electorate could be presented with a referendum on May’s deal, no deal, or no Brexit.
Labour sources Tuesday night said that up to 100 of the party’s MPs will Wednesday publish a statement calling on their leader, Jeremy Corbyn, to pivot towards a second referendum. Some senior EU figures used the defeat Tuesday to whip up support for a second referendum. Bas Eickhout, the Dutch candidate to succeed European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, said it would be “wisest to ask the British people again.”
NO DEAL
No one wants a no deal (just as no one wants the backstop, but it’s still a possibility.) Economists warn that an abrupt break from the EU could batter the British economy and bring chaotic scenes at borders, ports and airports. “Every business will feel no deal is hurtling closer,” said Carolyn Fairbairn, director-general of the Confederation of British Industry.
Vernon Bogdanor, Professor of Government at King’s College London, said Tuesday’s vote made a no-deal Brexit more likely. Parliament has already passed legislation saying the U.K. will be leaving the EU on 29 March and holding a second referendum would be very difficult, he said, because the government would have to pass legislation, and Brexiteers would “fight it tooth and nail.”
“There are about 40-odd sitting days left till March 29,” he told Sky News. “If no other statute is passed, we leave without a deal. I take the view ... that the vote tonight makes a no-deal departure more likely than a second referendum.” Brexiteers within cabinet are understood to have said that the threat of no deal will give May more leverage to renegotiate with the EU over the Irish backstop.
WILL EUROPE BUDGE?
It is hoped by some lawmakers that the scale of May’s defeat will force the EU to make concessions to ensure a deal is done. “But it would be a huge mistake to assume ... that it is now for the EU to reach into its negotiator’s hat and pull out a rabbit that will save the British Brexit project,” wrote Peter Foster in The Daily Telegraph. He added, “When reports appear in British newspapers that (German Chancellor) Angela Merkel is about to offer ‘new concessions’ on the backstop, blood boils in Brussels because the underlying presumption is that Brexit is a conundrum for the EU to solve. As one exasperated EU official says, ‘It’s the same old Germans-to-the-rescue storyline.’”
SUPER CANADA PLAN
Some lawmakers, notably former foreign secretary Boris Johnson, are admirers of Canada’s trade agreement with the EU and would like to emulate it. Canada’s Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) removes most of the customs duties on goods moving between the two trading blocs. CETA also allows EU companies the opportunity to bid for public contracts in Canada.
Canada is not obliged under CETA to pay into the EU budget, sign up to such rules as free movement, or abide by European Court of Justice (ECJ) rulings, Britain’s Daily Express reported. However, there are hundreds of exceptions listed under the trade deal and there are still many regulatory challenges to Canada trading in the EU.
MAY’S FUTURE
In a scathing commentary for The Daily Telegraph, Philip Johnston writes, “A few days after the June 2017 general election, Theresa May addressed her MPs at Westminster, still as prime minister but no longer with a parliamentary majority. She had contemplated resignation, but an overwhelming sense of duty possessed her. ‘I’m the one who got us into this mess and I’m the one who will get us out of it,’ she told them. After last night’s debacle in the Commons, they are entitled to ask: so how did that go?
“Her defeat is the greatest humiliation ever inflicted on a prime minister and should make her continuation in office untenable.
“This is, frankly, incredible. Her authority has gone, yet she still thinks she is the only person who can find a way out of a mess that she has herself created. She cannot see what others can — that she is the obstacle to securing and delivering Brexit.