STRONG CASE CAN BE MADE THAT DANAULT IS HABS’ MVP
Centre is doing a great job fulfilling responsibilities, writes Marc Dumont.
During the past eight days, the Canadiens faced teams that have some of the best lines in the NHL at their disposal.
The Colorado Avalanche (Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog), Boston Bruins (David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand) and Columbus Blue Jackets (Artemi Panarin, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cam Atkinson) presented the perfect opportunity for the Canadiens’ shutdown centre, Phillip Danault, to test his mettle against some of the top players in the league.
And there’s absolutely no doubt about it, Danault passed the incredibly tough tests with flying colours. Facing those top lines, Danault & Co. put on a defensive clinic and did not surrender a single 5-on-5 goal.
With 50 games under his belt this season, we can comfortably compare Danault’s on-ice results with last season, when he played 52 games for the Canadiens. The sample size is almost identical — 700 versus 680 minutes.
Danault maintained very respectable underlying numbers last season in three important categories: Corsi For percentage (how many shots his team controls while he’s on the ice), Scoring Chances For percentage and High Danger Shots For percentage. The only metric that fell under 50 per cent was the amount of goals-for during his shifts, though that was a teamwide issue rather than a Danault problem (see Danault on-ice statistics chart).
This season, however, Danault has ramped it up several notches, improving his numbers by a very significant margin.
Not only does he face the best lines in hockey on a nightly basis, but he also does so while controlling the play in a dominant fashion.
Danault ranks fifth in the NHL among centres when it comes to his share of shots while he’s on the ice. It’s an impressive feat considering that the top-10 list features such players as the San Jose Sharks’ Joe Thornton, Pittsburgh Penguins captain Sidney Crosby, Ryan Johansen of the Nashville Predators and Bergeron.
In mid-November, we looked at Danault’s value to the Canadiens, and how it went beyond his rather underwhelming production.
But recently, Danault — who had eight goals and 25 assists heading into Wednesday’s game against the Arizona Coyotes — has lifted his production to new heights. Though we must note that, unlike the majority of the best centres in the NHL, Danault does not enjoy much power-play time, playing a little over 12 total minutes on the man-advantage this season. That is why we need to focus on his 5-on-5 production to even the playing field with the rest of the league, because it would be unfair to penalize Danault for playing over two minutes a night on the penalty kill.
In 5-on-5 situations, Danault’s 27 points rank 23rd among all centres this season tying him with Mark Scheifele of the Winnipeg Jets and Toronto Maple Leafs star Auston Matthews. And Danault is ahead of such players as Tyler Seguin of the Dallas Stars, San Jose’s Joe Pavelski, Nicklas Backstrom of the Washington Capitals and Detroit Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin. For an in-house example of how solid his production has been, Danault finds himself only two 5-on-5 points behind teammate Max Domi, who leads the team in scoring, with 16-28-44 totals.
His surprisingly strong ranking among centres is explained by yet another significant statistical increase — his individual production rather than his on-ice results.
Starting with goals scored per 60 minutes of ice time, Danault has increased his production across the board compared with last season, and the result has seen his 1.49 points per 60 rise all the way to 2.3 points per 60 (see individual statistics chart).
There are very few centres in the league that can face the most skilled opponents in the NHL every game and still finish among the best players when it comes to controlling the play. Bergeron, the L.A. Kings’ Anze Kopitar, the Florida Panthers’ Aleksander Barkov and Sean Couturier of the Philadelphia Flyers are likely to come up when discussing elite shutdown centres, but given the amount of evidence we’ve accumulated, it might be time to add Danault’s name to the mix.
It’s unlikely Danault will receive a lot of votes for the Selke Trophy — awarded annually to the forward who demonstrates the most skill in the defensive component of the game — even though he should be considered, but his role with the Canadiens is crucial to their success, and he’s doing a great job fulfilling all his responsibilities.
There’s a legitimate argument to be made that he’s been the Canadiens’ most valuable player this year by a decent margin.
At age 25, he’s in the statistical prime of his career, playing excellent hockey and facing the best players in the NHL while he does it.
You can’t ask for much more than what Danault provides to the Canadiens.
Marc Dumont is an analyst and editor for The Athletic Montreal. (All statistics are via Natural Stat Trick, 5-on-5 unless otherwise specified.)
This season Danault has ramped it up several notches, improving his numbers by a very significant margin.