THE GOOD, THE BAD AND, WHOA, UGLY!
Musk’s numbers in Tesla’s Cybertruck don’t add up, again, writes David Booth.
Well that didn’t go quite as planned now, did it? Indeed, I can’t remember a time when the appearance of Elon Musk on a stage elicited so much … sympathy. From the silent gasp that greeted his futuristically styled lunar rover to the I-wonder-who’s-going-to-lose-theirjob-this-week moment when supposedly bulletproof glass looked, um, surprisingly vulnerable, the Tesla Cybertruck launch was — there is no other word for it — cringeworthy.
Nonetheless, it would be foolhardy to dismiss the Cybertruck’s importance. It is, after all, a Tesla, meaning that cult members will line up to hand in their $150 deposits because, well, flame-throwers. And there are, even for a committed skeptic like yours truly, a number of laudable features — being a biker, I really like the tailgate’s built-in ramp.
Here is a breakdown of Tesla’s claims for its world-changing pick-me-up.
The body: Musk made much of the Cybertruck cold-rolled stainless-steel body. As unusual as stainless is in the automotive industry, the benefits are manifold. Rust is non-existent, the look is unique, and as designer Franz von Holzhausen illustrated, the exterior should be tough as nails. We don’t know how much the Cybertruck will weigh, but if Tesla had decided to combine stainless steel with traditional truck manufacturing processes, it would have been truly tankish.
The downside is that stainless steel is typically tougher to form, which may help explain the Cybertruck’s styling by straightedge.
The performance: It’s hard not to be impressed by the numbers Musk trotted out: 250 miles (400 kilometres) of range in the base model, a whopping 500 miles (800 km) in the Tri Motor version. The Cybertruck, Musk says, will tow 14,000 pounds and have a maximum payload of 3,500 lbs. The problem is that some of the numbers don’t exactly add up.
According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Tesla’s Model X — certainly lighter than the Cybertruck — gets somewhere in the region of 2.3 to 2.8 miles (3.7 to 4.4 km) of range per kilowatt hour of lithium ion. Even using these optimistic numbers, the base Single Motor model will need about 100 kWh of lithium-ions to meet Musk’s predictions, and the Tri Motor will require somewhere in the region of 200 kWh. The latter represents at least 800 to 900 kg worth of batteries. Throw in three motors, inverters and the stainless-steel body, and it is starting to look pretty darned hefty.
I predict that aerodynamics and avoirdupois will make those 500 miles an impossible target on the highway. And, for the same reason, don’t be surprised if the Tri Motor doesn’t quite meet that 3,500-pound payload target.
The pricing: Musk announced the base Cybertruck will start at US$39,900. If Musk can deliver, even those put off by the Tonka Toy styling might be enticed into the Tesla fold.
Nobody else in the industry would dare put numbers like these forward. That may be because, as we all know, Tesla has a penchant for — let’s just call it like it is — complete fabrication. Why anyone still pays any heed to Muskian pricing pronouncements is beyond me.
The cost of lithium ion batteries now ranges between a high of US$175 a kWh (typically quoted for the cells and the battery pack combined) to a low of $125 (most often estimated for the individual cell packs alone). Tesla has said it will hit the $100 per kWh mark by 2020, but that’s almost assuredly for cell packs alone. Nonetheless, even using optimistic costing and battery efficiency, you’re looking at US$10,000 batteries in the base model and double that in the 500-mile version. Another additional cost will be the Cybertruck’s Fancy Dan body, which will not come cheap. The bottom line: Using any realistic estimates of near-term battery pricing, it’s hard to see how Tesla makes any profit at Musk’s advertised pricing. Contrast that with the mountains of cash that traditional truck makers generate from pickups. Thanks to the basic — you can call it archaic if you want — construction of a traditional pickup, a US$40,000 F-150 pumps at least at least $10,000 of profit into Ford’s coffers. This makes the Cybertruck the biggest risk Musk has taken since Tesla was pumping out little Lotus-based Roadsters.
If he can’t make a profit on the Cybertruck, then his penchant for poke-me-in-the-eye styling and wishful pricing will be his undoing.