Artificial intelligence helping JGH plan for surge

Hospital expects 85 patients by Sunday

The Jewish General Hospital has been relying on a sophisticated artificial-intelligence program to make reliable projections on the number of COVID-19 patients it will need to treat, the Montreal Gazette has learned.

The software, developed by an Israeli company, has proved to be nearly 98 per cent accurate so far, said Dr. Lawrence Rosenberg, executive director of the Centre-west health authority in charge of the Côte-des-neiges hospital.

The projections are allowing the Jewish General to plan ahead better in terms of staffing and resources. For example, the program is projecting that by Sunday, 85 patients will be hospitalized at the JGH with the pandemic respiratory illness. As a result, the hospital will be scaling up its intensive-care capacity over the weekend.

“It’s been pretty accurate,” Rosenberg said Friday. “It’s not 100 per cent, but I would say it’s close to 98 per cent accurate. For example, yesterday the model predicted we would have 64 total admissions. In fact, we had 65.”

On Friday, the Jewish General’s

total admissions inched up to 66. As a result of the AI program’s latest projection, the hospital is preparing another 19 beds by Sunday, ensuring there is optimal staff available.

“We will make sure we have everything properly staffed. We’re also able to separate out the (intensive care unit) admissions from the non-icu admissions, because we’re able to predict both.”

There were 26 patients in the ICU on Friday, the same as the day before.

As the pandemic worsens across Canada, provincial governments have been revising their projections. Ontario revealed on Friday that it is forecasting 3,000 to 15,000 COVID -19 deaths. Premier François Legault said Quebec will make its projections known on Tuesday.

The Jewish General is sharing its best practices with the health ministry. The confidence in its modelling program has allowed the hospital to donate some of its personal protective equipment (PPES) to the Mcgill University Health Centre, which is running low on supplies.

Fifty-six per cent of the Jewish General’s patients are from the west end, which is reporting the greatest number of COVID-19 cases in Montreal. The hospital has also made available an online survey for west-end residents to fill out to report symptoms. All of this information is entered into the AI program.

Health Minister Danielle Mccann designated the Jewish General in February as one of four COVID-19 treatment centres. In 2015 the hospital opened its K Pavilion, a building that was designed to handle a pandemic, with dozens of negative-pressure rooms that prevent the highly contagious coronavirus from escaping.