Legault urges Quebecers to ‘remain very disciplined’
Between 1,263 and 8,860 could die by end of April, projections show
Predicting the novel coronavirus will peak April 18, provincial health officials say under a bestcase scenario the virus could kill 1,263 Quebecers by the end of April.
And in a worst-case scenario — if Quebec followed the Italian model, which implies very little social distancing and tardy health measures — the death toll could hit 8,860 by the end of the month.
As of Tuesday, 150 Quebecers had died of the virus, which places the province within the parameters of the optimistic scenario based on real-life experiences of countries that have successfully curbed the virus: Portugal and Germany.
But the data, reluctantly released Tuesday, comes with a warning: Quebecers cannot let down their guard when it comes to social distancing and hand washing.
To do so would be playing with fire, Premier François Legault said a few hours before the data landed in the hands of the media.
“If we want to progressively return to a normal life at the beginning of May, it’s important to remain very disciplined all the month of April,” Legault said at his morning briefing.
“I want to be very clear. This doesn’t mean we can ease our efforts. We cannot spoil all that we have accomplished in the last few weeks.”
The analysts examine three key areas to arrive at their conclusions: confirmed COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and mortality rates. Under the optimistic scenario, Quebec would hit 29,212 confirmed cases April 30. As of Tuesday the real number is 9,340 which is slightly above the target, officials said at a technical briefing.
On hospitalizations and deaths, Quebec is safely under the desired curve. The best case scenario is for 1,404 hospitalizations, including 468 people in intensive care. Quebec now has 583 hospitalizations and 164 people in intensive care.
On the other hand, Quebec only has about 600 intensive-care beds at the ready, which would be a problem under the pessimistic scenario that suggests the need for 1,000 intensive-care beds.
Richard Massé, a strategic councillor for public health who handled the projection data release for the director of public health Horacio Arruda, said such a scenario, which he does not anticipate, would be “extremely difficult,” and has to be avoided.
He also warned the situation can change in the blink of an eye. Public health does not project beyond April 30 because anything beyond that is like shooting darts, he said.
“When we do scenarios, they are a forecast of the reality but they are not the reality,” Massé told reporters. He said the reason Quebec’s pandemic has not careened out of control is because the government acted early and swiftly.
“If people maintain the attitude they have had to date, we will maintain our success rate,” said Massé. “Above all, we must not ease up.”
Massé also moved to curb expectations that Quebec will be able to rapidly declare an end to its current lockdown and get the economy going. He said Quebec’s actions will have to be gradual.
“We won’t be doing things like we did before in certain sectors,” he said. “The notions of social distancing will be around for a long time.”
Nevertheless, the fresh data is allowing the government to shift resources. Secured in the belief the hospitalization situation is under control, Legault announced plans Tuesday to redeploy nurses and doctors from hospitals into the devastated public long-term care network (CHSLD) as well as other senior’s residences.
“It’s the big priority,” Health Minister Danielle Mccann said at the briefing with Legault. “We are sending reinforcements.”
The situation, which has spun out of control in the last week, is revealed in new data released by Arruda. Of the 150 deaths so far in Quebec, 44.7 per cent were at long-term care centres, 20 per cent at seniors’ residences, 26.7 per cent at home and the rest were unknown.
On the other hand, Quebec’s rate of hospitalizations remains low. Quebec has predicted a hospitalization rate of about 15 per cent. It has instead hovered around 9 or 10 per cent. On Tuesday, with 583 people in hospital including 164 in intensive care, the rate was at 6.2 per cent.
Under questioning by reporters, Legault denied the government failed to correctly gauge how seriously the virus could impact the most vulnerable people in society, noting Quebec from the get-go banned visitors and ordered residents to stay in their rooms to keep the virus at bay.
There are about 700 long-term care and seniors’ residences in Quebec. At one centre, the CHSLD Laval, more than 100 cases have been identified with eight deaths.
“At our very first meetings we immediately said that was the priority,” Legault said. “We were among the first to ban visits, we were among the first to add resources.
“And we need to understand persons who are in a CHSLD are already sick, which means they are even more vulnerable.”
Legault said even before the coronavirus outbreak, there were staffing problems at long-term care centres and seniors’ residences. Many were short workers or staffed by part-time employees working in several different centres, which helped the virus to hop from place to place.
“What we need to understand is this phenomena is not unique to Quebec,” Arruda said. “It’s everywhere. The protocols were there, the orientations given. How much they were able to apply them on the ground is another issue.”
Legault’s daily briefing revealed the province now has 9,340 confirmed cases of COVID-19, an increase of 760 from the day before. There are 50 more people in hospital for a total of 583. A total of 29 new deaths were announced.
There were also fresh questions about whether Quebec is getting an accurate picture of the number of confirmed cases, given many of the sick persons are in a CHSLD or seniors’ residences and thus do not appear in the overall total.
Legault conceded the data might not be perfectly accurate, but he added Quebec is seeing fewer deaths than some European countries that have been hit hard by the pandemic.
Legault and Arruda maintain the number that really matters is the mortality rate which, while tragic for dozens of families, remains well within the comfort zone compared to other countries or New York City, where 731 people have died since Monday.
“The marker or the temperature of the water I take is the mortality rate,” Arruda noted at the morning briefing with Legault. “The rest (of the data) is an estimate.”
Legault repeated the three most important things people can do — go out only if absolutely necessary, keep a safe distance if you do go out, and wash your hands when you get home.
And with the Easter and Passover religious holidays both occurring this week, Legault and Arruda warned there must be no social gatherings.
“It’s not that time of Easter to make a pineapple ham and invite in your sister-in-law and brotherin-law,” Arruda said.
Legault also had a message for children on Tuesday — the Tooth Fairy is included in Quebec’s list of essential services.