COVID-19 cases now peaking in Montreal, chief public health officer says
As COVID-19 continued its rampage through long-term care centres and seniors’ residences on Wednesday, Montreal’s chief public health officer announced the city is now peaking in the pandemic.
“Today, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow we will be at the peak in terms of the number of cases,” Mylène Drouin explained. “This means that the number of people infected in the community is probably at its highest level now.
“This also means we must absolutely maintain our measures of social distancing not only in the next few days, but until the end of April, as the government has asked of us,” she added. “This is good news, because after that period we can expect a decline in the epidemiological curve, with fewer and fewer cases each day.”
Still, the public health department released dramatically revised figures from those it made public earlier on Wednesday on its website, reporting 46 outbreaks in government-run nursing homes and 16 in seniors’ residences on the island of Montreal. Earlier in the day, the department disclosed a figure of 39, the same as Tuesday.
The death toll from the pandemic respiratory illness rose to 74 from 63 in the metropolis, with the average age of death being 82. The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases climbed to 4,775 — an increase of 8.35 per cent from the previous day.
In addition to the peak in new cases, Drouin warned Montrealers they will notice an increase in hospitalizations and intensive-care unit stays in the next 10 days, because it takes a week to 10 days for some people to develop severe complications after becoming infected. There will also be more deaths, especially in long-term care centres, known in French as CHSLDS.
Montreal’s projections differ sharply from those unveiled by the provincial government on Tuesday. Quebec is forecasting a peak in new cases from April 15-18. But Drouin explained the pandemic broke a week earlier in Montreal than the rest of the province, and that’s why the city is peaking now.
Dr. Lawrence Rosenberg, executive director of the health authority in charge of the Jewish General Hospital, told the Montreal Gazette that his institution’s projections show a peak in hospitalizations next week.
“We are tracking as per Santé publique,” Rosenberg said.
The Jewish General has been relying on a sophisticated modelling program developed by an Israeli firm, Maisha Labs, that draws upon artificial intelligence.
Drouin suggested the social distancing measures the city launched in the days after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, coupled with Montreal’s state of emergency, have paid off.
Even so, she predicted the city will experience a series of smaller outbreaks in the months to come in hospitals, CHSLDS and the workplace as Montrealers return gradually to their jobs. As a result, authorities will pay close attention not only to the elderly but those suffering from chronic illnesses.
Meanwhile, as the Quebec Health Ministry assigned more nurses and orderlies to CHSLDS, the pandemic continued to hit neighbourhoods hard across Montreal.
St-léonard became the 16th municipality or borough on the island to cross the threshold of 100 COVID -19 cases, declaring 103 on Wednesday.
Côte-des-neiges—notre-damede-grâce and Côte-st-luc remained COVID -19 hot spots, with 453 and 241 cases, respectively. Lasalle saw a jump of 30 cases, to 267.
The virulent disease is affecting all age groups, but the demographic with the most cases was still in the 40-49 age range. The fewest cases were reported in children up to the age of nine, with a total of 67 — a finding that shows COVID-19 has been disproportionately infecting middle age and elderly people.