City’s latest bar-related virus figures don’t add up
At least three outbreaks have flared up in period since businesses allowed to open
After withholding figures on COVID-19 cases linked to Montreal bars last week, Quebec public health authorities released a new set of statistics on Monday that unfortunately raised more questions than answers.
The government confirmed that 113 people who frequented the city’s drinking establishments tested positive for the coronavirus. Of that number, 65 cases have been traced to outbreaks in three venues: Bar Minéral on Atateken St., Nacho Libre on Beaubien St. E. and Bar Renard on Ste-catherine St. E.
Officials are also investigating whether eight people who contracted COVID -19 did so at a fourth venue.
Let us now consider for a moment what Seoul, the South Korean capital of 9.8 million people, did in early April when it discovered two bar employees caught the coronavirus. The mayor closed more than 400 bars, night clubs and discos.
South Korea, which has won universal praise for its prudent handling of the pandemic, has to date reported 13,771 cases and 296 deaths. Quebec, by comparison, has counted 57,616 cases thus far as well as 5,657 deaths.
Yet deputy premier Geneviève Guilbault sought to play down the significance of Montreal’s bar-related cases, noting the metropolis has issued alcohol permits to 924 establishments.
“So far, the cases linked to bars have been very limited,” Guilbault said.
However, what’s important to note is not that there are 924 bars in Montreal, but that at least three outbreaks flared up in less than three weeks after Quebec allowed these businesses to reopen.
What’s of even greater concern is the figures made public Monday are not consistent with the stats the health department disclosed last Wednesday. On that day, a spokesperson emailed the Montreal Gazette the following figures: 45 cases in total, 14 bars with at least one case, including six bars with more than one case.
At the very least, the number of people with COVID-19 who frequented bars has jumped from 45 on Wednesday to 113 on Monday.
There are other discrepancies that raise troubling questions. Dr. Richard Massé, a public health adviser to the province, cited figures Monday going back to June 28. But it was only on July 11 that the local health department urged all Montrealers who had been to a bar since July 1 to get tested.
Why did authorities wait until July 11 to make that public appeal? In contrast, the director of the Montérégie health department made an announcement on July 5 asking anyone who had been to the Mile Public House in Brossard on the evening of June 30 to get tested after an outbreak at the pub.
Massé noted authorities in Montreal observed a total of 667 new cases since June 28. However, the Montreal Gazette has calculated 837 cases since that date.
After promising to “share” the latest bar-related cases, the health department declined to provide data last Thursday and Friday. Premier François Legault declared Friday that the bars would stay open, insisting that new measures — such as an earlier last call — would prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
The Premier said the majority of new infections — 97 out of 141 Friday — were among health-care workers.
On Friday night, a health ministry spokesperson sent the Montreal Gazette a chart in which 15 per cent of new cases were attributed to health workers.
On Monday, Massé was asked whether most new cases arose from health workers. He did not answer the question directly but suggested most cases are from the community and he mentioned the bars.
It is vital in a pandemic that authorities release consistent information in a timely fashion. Given that the health department asked all Montrealers
who visited bars since July 1 to get screened, it’s incumbent on authorities to be straight with the public and not try to “massage” the data.
On the same day Legault insisted bars were not a concern, Canada’s deputy public health officer argued the opposite.
Dr. Howard Njoo said he was worried about “increasing reports of individuals contracting COVID -19 at parties, nightclubs and bars, as well as increasing rates of transmission among young Canadians in some jurisdictions across the country.”
The Ontario Medical Association issued a statement pleading with the Ford government to reconsider the opening of indoor bars, warning they carry a “significant risk.”
“When people consume alcohol, inhibitions are lowered, making them much less likely to practise physical distancing, proper masking behaviours and good hand hygiene,” the OMA said, citing the uptick in bar-related cases in Montreal.
Meanwhile, Quebec medical authorities have been disturbingly silent on the question.
There’s no doubt that many community cases have occurred after house parties. But Quebec’s chief public health officer, Dr. Horacio Arruda, expressed concern about the phenomenon of bar hopping. He also handed Health Minister Christian Dubé a New York Times article that largely blamed the massive resurgence in the United States to the reopening of bars.
With schools set to reopen late next month, anything authorities can do — like close bars with compensation to help offset the recent rise in cases — is advisable.
Just look to South Korea’s example.