Seeking bright spots under a dark curfew
Measure's biggest effect may be more psychological than physical
It was Claude Julien, coach of the Montreal Canadiens, who put it best when he said the return of hockey might bring some joy to a Quebec now living under a dark COVID-19 cloud.
“With hockey coming back, I think it will help the population from a mental health standpoint,” Julien said last Wednesday, hours before the Habs squared off for their season opener against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
“It's very important. I know the fans have been waiting for this moment for a while. We hope that it'll give people a boost and put smiles on their faces.”
Julien didn't mention it but given the current 8 p.m. curfew rules, the team had a larger captive audience, one that is hungry for entertainment to tap into.
Even if Toronto's Scotiabank Arena was bereft of fans and the coaches wore masks, the Habs and Leafs offered a high-energy show, injecting some excitement into the drab lives of Quebecers living under never-before-seen government restraints.
The Habs lost 5-4 in overtime, but it was just the start of the season. One headline the next day summed up the mood: “c'est bon pour le moral.”
Imposed via decree by Premier François Legault's government on Jan. 6 in an attempt to quash the second wave of the COVID -19 virus, the curfew is a first in Quebec history. No Quebec government has resorted to such a measure, even during events as cataclysmic as the 1918 flu pandemic, two world wars and the October Crisis.
The decision, which Legault described as a form of “shock treatment” for Quebecers still not respecting health rules, sparked a debate in the population and the media.
Will it work? How long will it take before Quebec sees a dip in new cases? As Quebec enters its second week of curfew, the jury is still out.
A spot poll done by CROP for La Presse Jan. 6-8 revealed that 70 per cent of Quebecers support the new restrictions.
That does not mean they are happy about them. After 10 months of pandemic and now a curfew, most Quebecers are wondering when this will all end.
“There is no perfect solution,” Legault said in announcing the curfew.
Three days after it kicked in on Jan. 9, Public Security Minister Geneviève Guilbault revealed police had handed out a total of 740 tickets to people breaking the rules.
In Montreal that first weekend, the provisional count was 185.
That's not many tickets for a population of 8.5 million, Guilbault said, noting some of those tickets went to the small band of Quebecers who launched protests that Saturday against the curfew.
People outdoors without a valid reason face fines of between $1,000 and $6,000. Most of the tickets handed out so far have been for $1,550, including administrative fees.
“I really want to thank Quebecers today for their response to a measure which, we can agree, is pretty drastic,” Guilbault said. “Quebecers have embraced this new measure, if I can put it this way.”
She will announce the latest fine tallies on Monday.
There has been some grumbling. Not everyone has the chance to adjust their work day to take their daily constitutional walk before 8 p.m. The move has also been criticized because Quebec has opted to leave the construction and manufacturing sectors — another source of virus spread — open. The same goes for schools.
Some said it hurts the homeless especially hard. Some essential service evening shift workers got slapped with tickets even though they had authorization letters.
But in most cities, the streets at night have been barren and eerily quiet.
“Despite a few incidents, we observed an excellent collaboration from the population in respecting the curfew,” the Sûreté du Québec wrote on Twitter.
Some resorted to stunts to protest. A couple in Sherbrooke tried to mock a clause in the decree that allows people with dogs to walk them after 8 p.m. within a one-kilometre radius of their homes.
The woman was stopped by police for walking around after curfew with her husband on a leash. They were fined. The story made headlines internationally. At one point it was the most read story on the BBC'S website.
Others used humour to express themselves. People started listing dogs to rent as a way to circumvent the rules. One website features Legault and a ticking clock.
Many other jurisdictions, such as India and Africa, have tried the curfew idea.
The science is not perfect, but some research shows international lockdowns have helped cut COVID-19 transmissions by as much as 40 to 60 per cent within two weeks of their start.
On Thursday, France became the latest country to go back into curfew mode.
The government is watching the effects of the curfew carefully. By the close of the first week, Quebec Health Minister Christian Dubé said it's too soon to say whether the curfew is working and whether it will actually be lifted Feb. 8 as planned.
Noting that the number of new COVID-19 cases this week seems to have stabilized at about 2,000, Dubé said he can't attribute that to the curfew. Quebecers must stick to the rules or Quebec will have to get even tougher.
“We can be happy with the direction we are going, but we must continue to make efforts,” Dubé told reporters at a news conference. The curfew and lockdown seem “to be working but it's too soon, too soon to say we have succeeded.”
Analysts, however, agree the curfew accomplishes one thing: it wakes up people who have let their guard down.
“It sends a powerful message about the severity of the pandemic,” said professor Daniel Béland, the director of Mcgill University's Institute for the Study of Canada and Quebec Studies Program, in an interview.
“Politically, it reinforces the government's message that it is doing everything it can to address the COVID-19 crisis, something that its opponents would disagree with.”
Béland said the government is lucky its curfew is in winter, when citizens are hunkered down anyway. The story would not be the same if this was July.
“The willingness of people to keep making so many sacrifices in their everyday lives will hinge largely on the intensity of the COVID-19 crisis,” he said. “If the number of daily cases significantly declines, pressure will become strong to ease restrictions and lift the curfew.”
There is a price to pay for this prolonged pandemic and restrictions, and it comes in the form of stress and rising rates of depression, said Anna Weinberg, an assistant professor in Mcgill's psychology faculty.
“Part of that is due to the total uncertainty that a lot of us are experiencing,” Weinberg said in an interview. “Will things be better or worse? We don't know because the government doesn't know week to week.”
If the curfew has a positive effect, Weinberg said, it is in creating the hope things will get better, especially “if we actually see results from this.”
“I don't think it's that onerous for most people,” Weinberg said. “My hope is this will help.”
“We are walking this fine line, to minimize harm but also get the numbers down. People will tolerate some intrusions for public health benefit, but not forever.”
But as Le Devoir columnist Michel David wrote recently, even if the scientific justification for a curfew remains fuzzy, “politics is not an exact science.”
If a government “is going to be blamed, it is better for it to be because it showed too much zeal rather than procrastination.”