Team Trudeau gets set for a spring election
Paper on official languages, moves on gun control, new pandemic promises signal intention to go to the polls
Anyone who entertained doubts that Justin Trudeau is doing everything he can to clear the runway for a spring election only had to look at events of last week to understand that he's going to go to the polls as soon as he decently can.
From gun control to language rights, Team Trudeau has been checking the boxes on unfulfilled promises and making new ones on the pandemic front.
Mélanie Joly has proven herself to be one of the stronger politicians in Trudeau's cabinet. She had fallen from grace in her previous portfolio, notably over her handling of the Netflix taxation issue, including a disastrous interview with highly respected Montreal radio host Paul Arcand.
She was determined to work her way back, and her performance in preparing and presenting her policy document on official languages was sterling. She wisely retreated from a previously announced intention to present a sweeping “white paper.” She did present a simple document that had a little something for everyone. Acadian and other francophone communities outside Quebec expressed strong support. Quebec anglos showed cautious approval, with some concerns. There was even a welcome intention to specify that nothing in the Official Languages Act could prejudice the status or enhancement of Indigenous languages. It was all wishful and there was not even draft legislation to give it some substance, but it didn't matter. Trudeau had pulled off a classic Liberal masterstroke: fortifying key parts of his base and making them inaccessible to his opponents.
Joly's preparation included opening channels of communication with Quebec City and her clear recognition that French is
Canada's minority language dovetailed nicely with the recent position put out by the equally capable Sonia Lebel. Simon Jolin-barrette spent the week vociferating in the National Assembly and has been told to cool his heels on his own language plans, for the time being.
It didn't go as well for Bill Blair and the convoluted announcement on gun control and a buyback plan satisfied no one. I know first hand that trying to assuage rural and urban members of caucus on the issue is a thankless task that lays bare profound regional and historic differences in perception of the purpose of guns. City folk see only danger, where rural and Indigenous communities see protection from predators, outdoor life and ... protein!
Trudeau got pummelled, with longtime gun-control allies saying they felt “betrayed” and saying his government lied to them. He felt he couldn't go to an election having done nothing, but probably wished he had. When both Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante and Premier François Legault's government slag a proposal, you know you haven't done your homework.
Quebec will be a key battleground in the election and this uncharacteristically ham-fisted handling of the file could cost the Liberals seats they cannot afford to lose.
Trudeau was also busy making hard and fast promises about timing and quantities for vaccine deliveries. If fulfilled, those promises would mean that by late spring, most Canadians would be looking back at the pandemic.
It's easy to guess the election theme; as Conservative Leader Erin O'toole sends messages about fiscal restraint, Trudeau will be saying: “we've had your back, they won't help you,”
The wild cards will be the NDP and Greens. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has done extremely well on fundraising and is holding steady at close to 20 per cent in the polls. If his Quebec presence can fairly be described as inconsequential, Green Party Leader Annamie Paul's has been non-existent. Progressive voters in Quebec know that the Bloc tilts more and more right wing on key social issues while environment and climate change remain top concerns. For want of simple political effort, both parties are abandoning many Quebec voters to the Liberals.