Give Astrazeneca to younger people

Cost-benefit analysis must be applied to all medical decisions; the advice of the National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) to halt use of the Astrazeneca vaccine for those under 55 fails this basic tenet.

The European Medicines Agency reports that with 20 million people in the U.K./ Europe receiving the Astrazeneca vaccine, 25 had complications related to blood clots. Assuming all incidents are a direct correlate, highly unlikely, there is a one in 1 million chance of a serious side effect. Other studies suggest a risk as high as 10 in 1 million. This is the cost of the vaccine.

And the benefit? Over 1 million Canadians have tested positive, with a death rate of 2.3 per cent, and a total of 23,356 deaths as of Tuesday. The Astrazeneca vaccine is minimally 90 per cent effective at preventing serious COVID-19 disease. Canada has received 1.5 million doses from the United States, with 1.5 million more to arrive from India in May. Thus, 1.5 million Canadians are positioned to receive full protection. Over the course of the pandemic, 3.7 per cent of all tests have been positive. Without the Astrazeneca vaccine we can expect 55,500 additional positives (36,000 in 1 million) and 1,304 deaths (869 in 1 million). Perhaps more importantly, the faster Canadians are vaccinated, the sooner patients with other serious medical conditions are treated. Slowing vaccination also slows economic recovery. Economic peril correlates strongly with poor health outcome.

Those 55 and over can still receive the Astrazeneca vaccine, and it was encouraging that many people in that age group have come forward. Especially as cases and deaths now shift to a younger demographic, NACI should revise its decision and make it available to younger people so Canadians can have a clear message and lives can be saved.

Peter S. Mcpherson, professor of Neurology and Neurosurgery and Anatomy and Cell Biology, The Neuro, Montreal