Dubé worried about fourth wave's rise
Mutations pushing hope of immunity out of reach, health minister warns
Stressing his concern over how the pandemic's fourth wave will evolve, Quebec Health Minister Christian Dubé warned on Friday that Quebecers may need to “learn to live with the virus” instead of hoping for an end date.
In a message posted to his Facebook page, Dubé said he's worried this month's return to school and the workplace could bring an increase in COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations throughout the province.
Dubé urged people to continue getting vaccinated — noting 79 per cent of eligible Quebecers are now fully vaccinated — and reminded those who already are of the need to continue respecting public health measures.
“What lies ahead in the more distant horizon? Until recently, it was thought that it would be possible to achieve herd immunity with vaccination. But the mutations of the virus are pushing this hope further and further away,” Dubé wrote.
Citing examples from around the world, he added it's likely the virus will continue to mutate into variants, bringing ongoing challenges in the “months and perhaps years” to come.
“Instead of looking for the date when all this will end, we will have to learn to live with the virus,” Dubé wrote. “We're going to have to accept a certain number of cases and a certain number of hospitalizations if we want to get back to a normal life.”
On Friday, new federal modelling warned that Canada could see more than 15,000 new daily infections by October if the current rate of transmission remains the same.
The projections emphasized an “urgent need” for more 18- to 39-year-olds to get vaccinated and for people to continue respecting such measures as masking and distancing.
The new modelling followed similar projections for several provinces this week, including in Ontario, where they suggested a “substantial” fourth wave could overwhelm hospitals if cases spike in September.
The Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ) said it's still finalizing its projections for how the pandemic will unfold during the fall in this province.
In an interview this week, a top epidemiologist with the institute said there are too many unknowns surrounding the Delta variant to confidently predict how severe the pandemic's fourth wave may be in Quebec. But the next month or so will be telling.
Epidemiologist Gaston De Serres said the number of new infections creeping back up is a cause for concern, but given most new cases are being reported in younger age groups, what impact they'll have on the province's hospital network remains to be seen.
De Serres stressed that what the last few months have shown is that vaccination is working and helping keep the pandemic under control. Even with the province's high vaccination coverage, however, there is still a large enough pool of unvaccinated people to overwhelm the health network.
“Do I think intensive care units in Quebec will be cluttered by COVID -19 cases? It's hard to say,” De Serres said. “It's a matter of flow. If the flow (of new admissions) is not too fast, ICUS will be able to deal with these cases.
“If you have an explosion of cases, obviously that will be more of a problem.”
De Serres said an increase in cases is likely with schools and workplaces reopening, but it will take at least two weeks, if not until the end of September, to fully gauge what effect the reopening has on transmission and hospitalizations.
“There are lots of unknowns that will really radically change the results of any projections,” he said.
Over the last few weeks, the number of new infections in Quebec has steadily increased. The province's seven-day rolling average of new cases has now gone from 76 in early July to 590 this week.
On Friday, Quebec reported two more deaths and 750 new cases, the highest one-day case count in more than three months. Of the new cases, 555 were reported in unvaccinated people, while 195 were either partially or fully vaccinated people.
Hospitalizations also increased by nine, for a total of 147, the highest they've been in 10 weeks.