A vote for Bernier is a vote for Trudeau
The federal election is almost a fait accompli, and the final result remains in serious doubt. Hence, it's critically important for all conservatives, especially supporters of Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada, to get behind Erin O'toole and the Conservatives.
Public opinion polls are flipping, flopping and flailing in the choppy political waters. Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have a small lead in some polls, O'toole's Conservatives lead others. Several polls suggest a dead heat.
Now, polling firms can make mistakes. Some errors are minuscule. In other cases, including the stunning result in Nova Scotia on Aug. 17 that led to a majority Progressive Conservative government that virtually no one saw coming, they can get it wrong.
That's the nature of this profession. Asking questions of a modern electorate who can often be fickle, volatile and less than honest in their responses doesn't always produce the best data.
But the federal campaign poll numbers do reveal some interesting dynamics at play, including an unusually high number of undecided voters. Trudeau briefly experienced a bounce after the English-language debate — which is hard to fathom, based on his poor performance — but that has dissipated. There also seem to be some lingering question marks about O'toole in the campaign's final days, but conservatives need to shake those doubts off.
This could potentially end up being one of the closest elections in Canadian history. Something along the lines of either then-liberal prime minister Pierre Trudeau's 1972 razor-thin victory over Robert Stanfield and the PCS (109-107 seats), or PC leader John Diefenbaker's upset win in 1957 over then-liberal prime minister Louis St. Laurent (111-104 seats). Then again, it may not.
A majority government seems likely out of reach, but the size of a Conservative or Liberal minority could be determined by other factors: total voter turnout; which party wins the most seats in Ontario, B.C., Quebec and parts of Atlantic Canada; how the NDP, Greens and Bloc Québécois ultimately fare and their cumulative share of Canada's progressive vote.
Canadian conservatives, in particular, need to keep their eyes on the political prize. It's not enough to simply call Trudeau a weak and ineffective leader who's been an embarrassment on the national and international stage for nearly six years. Stating the obvious is one thing, but registering your vote is quite another.
The PPC has been hovering around six to eight per cent in most polls. For a party that finished with 1.7 per cent and no seats in 2019, this would be a stunning result. While not every PPC supporter is a disgruntled Conservative, quite a few fit that particular profile. Many of them believe O'toole is little more than a Red Tory, or left-leaning Conservative.
This erroneous belief could bring us another Trudeau term.
“If too many voters in Ontario show up and vote PPC, instead of the CPC,” Campaign Research Inc. reported on Thursday, “then the CPC will not be able to win a plurality of seats.” They even suggest that under this scenario, the Liberals “will win the election, winning a minority or even, potentially, a majority government.”
With all due respect, that's debatable. The PPC'S support base, like most small parties historically, is in flux. It can easily grow or dissolve at the ballot boxes on election day.
However, a high turnout by PPC supporters in what appears to be a close election could serve as a major political disruption. If they win seats, hurt the Conservatives or simply play spoiler in some close ridings, that could make a huge difference.
And if it leads to another left-leaning Liberal government propped up by even more left-leaning opposition parties, that would be disastrous.
Progressives often talk of voting strategically: vote for the progressive party most likely to win your riding. Conservatives need to do the same.
What O'toole brings to the table is a clear, concise and forward-thinking political vision.
A small-“c” conservative vision when it comes to supporting small government, low taxes and more individual rights and freedoms. Using fiscal prudence as an important measure of support for public services like health care and education, as well as new proposed programs related to helping individuals and businesses during COVID-19.
Enhancing the role of private enterprise to create more economic efficiencies. Supporting small business owners as well as the working class when it comes to financial opportunities. Rectifying Canada's shattered reputation on the international stage. Developing a big-tent Conservative philosophy that welcomes all Canadians and gives them an opportunity to help participate in building a better future for our country.
Is this akin to Red Toryism? Absolutely not. Is it a balanced approach to Canadian conservatism that champions fiscal responsibility and the free market economy rather than single-minded wedge issues? Yes. Will it clean up the political and economic damage the Trudeau Liberals have caused since 2015? Without a shadow of a doubt.
That's why all Canadian conservatives, especially those tempted by Bernier's pitch, need to vote to elect Erin O'toole as prime minister on Sept. 20.