LEGAULT WAS THE BIG WINNER OF THIS ELECTION
Federal leaders walked on eggshells around premier
He didn't even run in this election, but if there is a clear winner from Monday's close and bruising federal vote, it is Quebec Premier François Legault.
Canada may be as undecided as it was before the campaign kicked off. At least according to the early, inconclusive results, we seem to be looking at another minority Parliament with the same regional blocks, ideological cleavages and stern marching orders from voters to go back to Ottawa and play nice in the political sandbox.
But this division suits Legault just fine. He has appointed himself Quebec's defender-in-chief, keeper of the national honour, arbiter of his people's values. He has made it clear his co-operation is required — or at least that his opposition should be avoided — for any prime minister looking to enact any sort of national agenda. He has as much as told Ottawa to butt out of Quebec's business — unless, of course, they want to fork over some money.
And as long as some federal leader is betting that he or she will need some of Quebec's hotly contested seats to form a majority government in a notso-distant future, Legault will continue to occupy the role of power broker, looming large over any path to victory.
All parties spent at least part of the campaign trying to placate Legault.
They walked on eggshells around him for months, dodging any kind of firm stance on matters that touch on the protection of fundamental rights and freedoms, the sanctity of the Canadian Constitution and the future of the federation. Be it Bill 21, Quebec's secularism law, or Bill 96, Legault's effort to bolster the French language, they tiptoed around them despite the blanket use of the notwithstanding clause.
Justin Trudeau gambled that handing Quebec a $6-billion cheque with no strings attached to fund the province's public daycare program would at least buy Legault's grateful silence for the duration of the federal campaign. Boy, was he wrong.
On Sept. 9, Legault expressed a preference for a Conservative minority government, after Tory Leader Erin O'toole agreed never to challenge Bill 21. Legault claimed the Liberals, New Democratic Party and Greens couldn't be trusted not to interfere in Quebec's jurisdiction.
Québec solidaire MNA Catherine Dorion accused him of selling his soul to the Conservatives for a raw deal: a $4-billion contribution to the expensive and environmentally disastrous Troisième lien tunnel between Quebec City and Lévis, versus $6 billion “of our money” that was supposed to help families access child care amid a shortage of spaces. She questioned not only his accounting skills, but his priorities.
Whereas Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Alberta's Jason Kenney pulled a disappearing act lest their own unpopularity sink the fortunes of their federal brethren, Legault seemed to enjoy the pandering — and panic — that accompanied his every whim or grievance.
Then the English-language debate served up a new opportunity for the Quebec premier to stir up a nationalist fervour. A question to Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-françois Blanchet — in which the preamble described Bill 21 as outright “discriminatory” — drew Legault's immediate umbrage. He decried it as an attack on Quebec's language and values.
Trudeau, O'toole and New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh had no choice but to join in the recriminations. But they were all raked over the coals for failing to come to Blanchet's defence on the spot.
Within days, the National Assembly passed a motion lambasting this supposed Quebec-bashing and demanding an apology from the broadcast consortium that allowed the biased question. And with that bit of political theatre, the Bloc's fortunes got a boost, while those of the Tories, Liberals and NDP sagged.
With Quebec strongly unified in its outrage, Canada was left further divided. The country was also poised to elect a prime minister willing to let Legault walk all over him like a dirty old doormat. But for what? National unity? Monday's results certainly don't suggest anything of the sort. To gain ground in Quebec? The province's 78 seats appeared to be scattered among the parties in much the same way as they were before. To avoid a larger crisis? Let's be honest: Legault will find a reason to pick a fight one way or the other for his own benefit.
He is facing an election himself next year, after all. And if this campaign was a train wreck for all the federal parties, it was a promising test run for Legault's nationalist agenda. He has all the federal leaders either running scared or wrapped around his little finger.
Are those winning conditions, or what?