Several Liberal strongholds likely to stay red
Hochelaga seen as toss-up; NDP projected to win Rosemont—la Petite-patrie
Justin Trudeau was expected to have an easy time winning his seat again in Papineau riding in central Montreal on Monday, but perhaps not as easy as in previous elections.
An early projection before polls closed had him securing the seat, which he has held since 2008, with 48 per cent of the vote.
In 2019, Trudeau was re-elected in Papineau with 51.2 per cent of the vote. He also nabbed a majority of votes in 2015, with just under 52 per cent of ballots cast.
The riding, which includes Villeray—st-michel—parc-extension borough, is the second most densely populated riding in the country. It's also the second poorest, with a median household income of $43,451.
Constituents of Trudeau's home riding stuck with the Liberal leader in the 2019 election after a scandal over resurfaced photos showing Trudeau in skin-darkening makeup on at least three occasions years before. Trudeau apologized for the incidents, which included an Arabian Nights-themed party in 2001 when he was 29 years old.
Papineau was one of several Liberal strongholds in the central and eastern parts of Montreal Island that were expected to stay red on Monday night.
Among the seats considered safe for the Liberals was Honoré-mercier, which incumbent Pablo Rodriguez, who served as Leader of the Government in the House of Commons in the last government, has held since 2004.
Another Liberal stronghold is Saint-léonard—saint-michel, where incumbent Patricia Lattanzio, a former Montreal city councillor and former English Montreal School Board commissioner, was running in her second federal election. In 2019, she won the largest majority of any federal MP in the province, with 61.33 per cent of the vote.
The Liberal stronghold of Bourassa, the poorest riding in the country with a median household income of $43,347, was expected to re-elect incumbent Emmanuel Dubourg. The riding covers Montréal-nord borough. Dubourg, a chartered accountant and teacher who was a provincial MNA before entering federal politics, has held the seat for the federal Liberals since a 2013 byelection. He was re-elected with 57.6 per cent of the vote in 2019.
A toss-up leading up to election day was Hochelaga riding, which Soraya Martinez Ferrada, a onetime Montreal city councillor, won for the Liberals by just over 300 votes over Bloc Québécois candidate Simon Marchand in 2019. The close margin led to a recount that confirmed Martinez Ferrada's victory.
Marchand was back as BQ candidate in this election, as was New Democratic Party candidate Catheryn Roy- Goyette, who ran third in the 2019 vote.
The BQ had held the seat in Hochelaga from 2004 to 2011, before the NDP nabbed it in 2011 and again in 2015.
For the BQ, east-end La Pointde-l'île riding was considered a safe seat leading up to the election. Incumbent Mario Beaulieu, a former interim leader of the BQ, has represented the riding since 2015. His Liberal opponent, Jonas Fadeu, who said he entered politics to give a voice to racialized minorities, was polling second during this campaign.
The riding, which covers the demerged suburb of Montréal-est and the Pointe-aux-trembles and Mercier-est districts of Montreal, has nearly always voted Bloc Québécois since it was created for the 2004 election. The exception was an NDP victory in 2011.
The NDP was projected to win Rosemont—la Petite-patrie riding, which incumbent Alexandre Boulerice has represented since 2011.
“I'm not saying we'll elect 20 or 25 candidates in Quebec, but we can aim for a half-dozen on Monday and start the resurgence of the party in Quebec,” Boulerice, the NDP'S Quebec lieutenant, said in an interview from the hustings on one of the final days of the campaign.
It was 10 years ago that the NDP, led by Jack Layton, rode an “Orange Wave” to victory in a majority of ridings in Quebec, catapulting the party into the role of Official Opposition in Ottawa. Boulerice was among 59 NDP candidates who surprised the country by winning three-quarters of the seats in the province.
In 2015, the wave lessened to a ripple, with 16 NDP candidates winning in Quebec. In 2019, Boulerice was the lone NDP candidate to win a seat in the province, albeit with a solid 42 per cent of the votes in his riding.
In this election, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's focus on the environment, housing and helping small- and medium-sized businesses, independent workers and students seems to be resonating with Quebec voters, Boulerice said.
“So for progressive voters, we're really a party that answers expectations and that has solutions that please them, whether it's in health or on housing,” he said.
“These are themes that keep coming up in conversations.”
To boot, several NDP winners of the 2011 election were back running again this year, while others who ran in 2019 were back for a second try.