Quebec confident COVID-19 is under control
Risk is in August or September: Dubé
It's possible Quebec could see a rise in COVID-19 cases similar to the one experienced in Europe right now, but the province is confident it will be able to manage it, Health Minister Christian Dubé said on Wednesday.
Speaking to reporters in Quebec City, Dubé said authorities are closely monitoring the increase in cases reported in certain European countries.
But given Quebec's vaccination rate, the warmer weather approaching and the number of people who still have immunity from recent infections, Dubé said public health believes the province is well-positioned to face a potential increase.
“When we compare to countries with comparable figures, they say we are OK,” Dubé told reporters. “They also say that if there is a risk, it could be in August or September. And we want to be ready for that.”
As Quebec's fifth wave subsided in recent weeks, the province has gradually lifted nearly all public health restrictions that were in place to control transmission.
One of the only measures remaining is the provincewide mask mandate, but Quebec has announced it intends to lift the requirement in most public, indoor places by mid-april. Dubé repeated Wednesday that could also be done even sooner.
Meanwhile, in Europe, pandemic indicators point to the potential start of a sixth wave. The Netherlands, Germany, and Italy, among other countries, are all experiencing a rapid rise in cases. The United Kingdom, for its part, has seen hospitalizations increase by nearly 20 per cent in the last week.
During a news conference Wednesday, the World Health Organization warned that after weeks of steady declines, reported infections are once again on the rise globally, including in Europe and especially in parts of Asia.
“These increases are occurring despite reductions in testing in some countries,” said director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, “which means the cases we are seeing are just the tip of the iceberg.
Public health experts who spoke with the Montreal Gazette on Wednesday urged Quebec authorities not to ignore the situation in Europe and monitor how it unfolds.
And though a surge as severe as what was seen with the Omicron variant is unlikely, they said, a potential spike cannot be ruled out, especially with the removal of health measures.
Dr. Nathalie Grandvaux, of the CHUM Research Centre, said the pandemic has repeatedly shown that increases in Europe are usually reflected in Quebec three or four weeks later.
“So I would keep a very close eye on that until the end of the week, to see if it keeps increasing or if it stabilizes,” Grandvaux said. “If not, we'll have to ask ourselves some serious questions here about how to react and how to adapt our reopening plan.”
Dr. Benoît Barbeau, a virologist at the Université du Québec à Montréal, said he also expects the increases to soon be reflected in Quebec. But he cautioned it's too early to know just how much of a spike the province could see.
“What's working against us is that the lifting of measures could give the increase a bit of a boost. On the other hand, what helps is that we're heading toward the spring and people will be outdoors more,” Barbeau said.
“Hopefully, given the delay (with Europe), if the increase does start here we'll be even closer to the warm weather by then.”
Given the uncertainty, both Barbeau and Grandvaux agreed it may be wise for Quebec to hold off on lifting the mask mandate just yet.
“The mask is sort of the last vestige of sanitary measures in Quebec,” Barbeau said. “We need to at least give ourselves the flexibility of having that tool as an option if needed.”
Reached for comment, Quebec's Health Ministry said the increases in Europe were to be expected.
“A pandemic is made of successive waves,” a spokesperson noted, but added it's too early to know exactly what's causing them.
“If the situation requires it, Quebec will react quickly,” wrote spokesperson Robert Maranda. “However, although the situation is taken seriously, there is no reason to be overly concerned or to talk about a sixth wave at this stage.”