How anglo vote-splitting could play out

Wealth of choice makes things more interesting, and more complicated

For the past several provincial elections, many Quebec anglophones have felt disenfranchised, like political orphans. Campaigns and voting inspired little enthusiasm. Feeling that the Liberal Party took their vote for granted, they either stayed home or held their noses to vote Liberal as the lesser evil.

With another election coming, I've been hearing a familiar refrain: “Who do I vote for?”

This time, it's not due to a lack of choice, but the reverse. In ridings with meaningful anglophone populations, primarily on the Island of Montreal, several new parties will be courting electors. The Conservative Party of Quebec, the Canadian Party of Quebec and Bloc Montréal are all potential suitors, and this puts pressure on the Liberals. It's nice to feel wanted, for a change.

The tumultuous past four years of the government's identity politics, including passage of a stricter language law, Bill 96, have left anglophone voters energized politically and wanting to wield influence at the ballot box. Many have vowed not to support the Liberals after their bungling of the Bill 96 amendments, even though the party voted against the bill. They feel it is time to shake things up and want stronger voices speaking on their behalf. However, it gets complicated if the field becomes crowded. So-called vote-splitting can be a concern.

In this election, vote-splitting could play out in different ways.

One scenario involves francophone-majority ridings held by the Liberals whose fairly significant anglophone populations have helped propel the party to victory. Such ridings as Marguerite-bourgeoys (Lasalle), Marquette (Lachine and Dorval), Verdun, Vaudreuil and Saint-henri-sainte-anne, which is Liberal Leader Dominique Anglade's riding, all have anglophone populations over 20 per cent. If anglos in these ridings abandon the Liberals for the newer parties, François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec, authors of Bill 96, could be handed a victory in many of them.

A second vote-splitting scenario involves such west-end and West Island ridings as Jacques-cartier, D'arcy-mcgee, Westmount-st-louis, Robert Baldwin and Notredame-de-grâce, where non-francophones are a solid majority, and the Liberals win by large margins. Here, the CAQ appears to have no chance. In 1989, the Equality Party won four of those seats and almost the fifth. But this time, three parties could be splitting the votes of those disillusioned with the Liberals, which makes it easier for the Liberals to win. The new parties haven't yet been able to forge an agreement about not running against each other in these ridings.

Many anglophones feel they have little to lose, given that the CAQ is likely to form a majority anyway. Why not vote out of conviction this time, instead of fear? True. But in the ridings in the first scenario, some voters opposed to Bill 96 may shudder at the prospect of inadvertently helping to reward the CAQ with extra seats. In ridings where the CAQ is not a threat, the newer parties merit serious consideration.

The language issue is not going away, as we've been reminded this week with the census debate and fallout from legal challenges to Bill 96. Whom anglo voters help send to the National Assembly for the next four years is critical.

During the campaign it will be essential for anglos to do their homework and size up all options and scenarios. Which of the newer parties will emerge as the most viable? How capable are the candidates? Will Éric Duhaime's Conservatives remain true to their anti-bill 96 convictions? Will the Liberals be able to mend fences with the community or remain wishywashy on language to court the soft-nationalist vote?

This is shaping up to be a much more interesting election for anglophones than we've seen in a long time. Stay tuned.

Robert Libman is an architect and building planning consultant who has served as Equality Party leader and MNA, as mayor of Côte-st-luc and as a member of the Montreal executive committee. He was a Conservative candidate in the 2015 federal election. twitter.com/robertlibman