ACES ON BRIDGE

“Do not let your chances like sunbeams pass you by,

For you never miss the water till the well runs dry.”

— Rowland Howard

In today’s deal, from an Online Contract Bridge League international event, declarer did not make the most of his chances.

North’s passed-hand jump to three diamonds was a splinter. South then made a shortage-showing jump of his own before planting the contract in six spades. West led a spade to East’s ace, and back came a trump. South could see no line better than winning in dummy, unblocking the diamond queen and trying the club finesse. He duly lost his slam.

Declarer should have combined his chances after East’s trump return by unblocking the diamond queen, ruffing a heart and cashing the diamond aceking for a discard from each rounded suit. If the diamond jack had dropped, as it would here, he could shed two more clubs on the diamonds and ruff both of his low clubs in dummy, making his contract without the need for the club finesse. If the diamond jack had not appeared, he still could have ruffed a diamond and fallen back on the club finesse. East’s second trump play was logical (and might have been necessary if declarer were 4-4 in the minors), but a club shift forces declarer to make a premature guess today. South’s best bet would be to finesse in clubs now, taking that 50% chance over the odds that the diamond jack would fall in three rounds, which happens slightly more than one time in three.

In theory, East should be able to deduce that a club switch away from the king is safe. Based on the auction, South surely has the top diamonds, so he can always pitch at least two clubs on the diamonds if given time.