Afghans prepare for election amid continued violence
Organizers optimistic about outcome despite critics’ doubts
KANDAHAR • Afghanistan will roll the dice tomorrow in a $150-million election as the world holds its breath and wonders if it will pay off.
Armies of foreign advisors that have helped organize the vote predict it will be successful, and Afghans have shown their confidence in the process by registering to vote by the millions. But doubters say a recent spate of bombings and shootings indicates the election, or its aftermath, will be a flop.
Since early June, at least seven candidates and five election workers have been killed.
Military commanders say the violence is less than they anticipated, and argue the Taliban is a fractured, spent force. To underline the point, they have virtually scrapped the term Taliban and instead use the acronym ACM — anticoalition militias — to refer to a mixed bag of bandits, foreign and domestic religious extremists, drug lords and warlords who thrive on continued chaos.
Col. Steve Bowes, commander of the Kandahar-based Canadian Provisional Reconstruction Team, says the ability of the ACMs to cause trouble is overrated.
“ The recent assassination of seven people with voter registration cards has backfired,” Col. Bowes declared yesterday. “ They have already lost. There will be a good voter turnout, regardless of what happens, and that is a defeat for the ACM.”
Almost 13 million Afghans have registered to vote, out of a population of 21.7 million, and there are 5,805 candidates vying for the national parliament’s 249 seats and 34 provincial councils.
It is expected up to 80% of registered voters will cast ballots despite warnings from the Taliban that a walk to the polls can be suicide.
Security at the voting booth will be a local affair unless Afghan soldiers and police call for help.
About 26,000 foreign troops, including up to 900 Canadians, will patrol the streets of Afghanistan’s cities, towns and villages, but they will keep a respectful 500-metre distance from polling stations until they are called in.
Despite the West’s best efforts, some of those elected could be familiar and unwanted faces — such as tribal and militia leaders who destroyed this country during 25 years of fighting.
Proxy candidates will represent the more-notorious militia leaders still on the run.
Hundreds of candidates with known links to militias are seeking office, as are five former officials who served with the repressive Taliban regime. They declare they have mended their ways and want only a democratic Afghanistan, albeit a country that adheres to strict Islamic principles.
More than 90% are independents — belonging to no parties but too often beholden to the interests of their tribes — suggesting they will have their own agendas to pursue rather than a set of national priorities.
Also, 68 parliamentary seats and 25% of the seats in the provincial legislatures are reserved for women.
But instead of building the political profile of women, those reserved seats may create a backlash says Kit Spence, a Victoria, B. C. resident who helped train Afghanistan’s aspiring politicians on behalf of the National Democratic Institute — an international organization which has attempted to educate hundreds of candidates in the ways of democracy.
“ They will have the right to speak up in parliament but there will be questions regarding their legitimacy since they will have been elected by a slim mandate,” Mr. Spence said.
As well, even if the parliament can reach some kind of consensus, it will have little power said Peter Dimitroff, another Victoria resident and Afghanistan director for the NDI.
“ You must understand that 83% of the economy last year was international aid and it’s the donors who decide where that goes. The biggest question for the new parliament will be downsizing expectations,” Mr. Dimitroff said.
To date, $8.4-billion dollars has been spent on propping up Afghanistan, and 37 foreign nations have spent an additional $50-billion on military intervention.
The vote will be conducted under a first-past-the-post electoral system, with every voter having only one vote. The system, said Mr. Dimitroff, discourages voting blocs that can discuss issues and reach compromises. The result will be parliamentary gridlock, he warned.
“ You can’t have a parliament more set-up to fail,” Mr. Dimitroff adds.
But NDI’s program director for the five southern provinces disagrees.
The parliament is based on the model of the Loya Jirga of 2003 — the grand assembly which forged Afghanistan’s constitution. It’s a traditional way of getting things done said Nasrullah Durani.
Up to 150,000 people will oversee 135,000 ballot boxes and the 140,000 bottles of ink needed to mark the fingers to show people have voted.
To ensure there is no shortage of ballots the foreign-supervised election management team ordered massive quantities of paper — 19.5 million parliamentary ballots, 19.5 million provincial ballots and another million ballots for the country’s 600,000 registered nomads.
Because there are so many candidates, the parliamentary ballot paper for Kandahar is the size of two tabloid newspaper pages and the provincial ballot comprises another two pages.
In Kabul the parliamentary ballot alone fills seven pages.
The ballots have been delivered to 6,265 polling centres nationwide — some by truck some by camel or donkey and some by helicopter — to remote mud-walled mountain communities.