UNIVERSITIES BRACE FOR ENROLMENT DROP
Record levels set in 2003 not expected to last
Canadian university enrolment reached record levels in 2003, but the number of undergraduates is expected to decline over the next three years as the children of Baby Boomers finish their degrees or move on to graduate school.
In Ottawa, universities are preparing for the demographic shift by expanding graduate programs — and vying for the government grants that accompany them. They are also establishing reserve funds to cope with shrinking budgets, launching programs that will reduce undergraduate dropout or transfer rates, and attempting to recruit more students from other countries.
“If we’re going to experience a decrease in Canadian students in a couple of years time, it would be wise for us to try to recruit more international students,” said David Atkinson, president of Carleton University.
He also suggested the anticipated dip in undergraduate enrolment could be offset by increased demand from new immigrants as well as children of families from the fast-growing suburbs of Toronto.
“I think Carleton has to be much more aggressive about getting a bigger share of eligible students from the 905 and 416 [area codes],” Mr. Atkinson said.
According to a new report by Statistics Canada, 2003 will be remembered as the year Canadian universities recorded the largest enrolment increase in more than a quarter century. The sharp growth was the result of the elimination of Grade 13 in Ontario, an influx of foreign students and an economic shift that has made a university degree essential in the workforce.
The resulting bulge pushed enrolment to a record 990,400, up 6.1% from the year before and 20.4% from 1997. That year, Carleton saw its student population jump by 14% to 17,858, while enrolment at the University of Ottawa soared 10% to 30,175.
Of the total number of students at Canadian universities in 2003, a record 70,000 — or seven per cent — were students from other countries. Almost half the foreign students came from Asia, with China accounting for the majority of Asian students.
That trend is reflected at Carleton, where the proportion of foreign students exceeded the national rate, reaching 8.9% in 2003 and 9.5% last year. By contrast, the proportion of foreign students at the University of Ottawa was lower than the national figure at 5.3% in 2003 and 5.8% last year.
The national survey also showed that women outnumbered men on Canadian campuses, with female students accounting for six out of 10 undergraduates — a proportion that is reflected at both U of O and Carleton.
What’s more, enrolment increased nationally in almost every field except math and computer science, which recorded a drop for the second consecutive year.
The decline was less dramatic at Ontario universities given the influx of high-school graduates from the province’s double cohort. Ottawa universities with engineering programs reported a slight increase in enrolment in 2003, but the numbers have since slipped.
At Carleton, the number of engineering majors dropped 4.6% from 2003 to 3,187 last year, while enrolment at the U of O fell more than 10% to 3,411 over the same period.
Pierre Mercier, the University of Ottawa’s director of institutional research and planning, said fewer engineering students have had little impact on overall enrolment, due largely to growth in health and social-science programs.
Indeed, as the first wave of double-cohort students complete their undergraduate degrees in 2007, Mr. Mercier anticipates the University of Ottawa will see a surge in demand for graduate programs. “ We’re expecting another peak in the number of registrations, but this time, at the graduate level.”