Quebec is not going anywhere
Re: The Wafer-thin Ties That Bind, John Ivison, June 29.
John Ivison’s (and apparently increasingly the chattering classes in the Rest of Canada’s) worries about Quebec independence omits taking into consideration the two most important changes in Quebec demographics over the past 40 years, which are continuing exponentially and which would render any future Quebec sovereignty or independence referenda totally futile.
The Quebec francophone over 50s “Zoomers” are now in the majority in French Quebec. They are no longer the idealistic social democratic nationalists who voted in the 1960s or 70s or even 80s. Today’s Quebecois Zoomers care about health care, pharamcare, old-age pensions, lower taxes, a strong loonie for a few weeks each winter in Florida and stable capital markets. In a word, they are small “c” conservatives.
The other fastest growing francophone segment of Quebec society are the 18- to 30-year old sons and daughters of francophone immigrants to Quebec. Their parents — French speaking, upper-class families from Haiti, North Africa, the Lebanon and both China and Indo-China — came here after 1965. This group is focused on graduating in science, engineering and medicine, an are quickly overtaking the so-called “old stock/ pur laine” Quebecers of that same age group. One need merely watch videos of this year’s student demonstrations — you won’t see very many dark skinned or Asian faces in those crowds on the street. They are too busy studying for their final exams or working part-time.
The so-called hard-core separatist vote was always 40%. Today it might be 30%. There will not be a referendum on Quebec sovereignty during this decade and should there be one in the next decade, it will be to settle the yes vote once and for all at a humiliating 25%, at best.