Oil industry set to grow
Canada’s oil industry continues to expand and will see production more than double over the next two decades, says a forecast released by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP).
The projected increase presents both opportunities and challenges for the sector and the markets it is seeking to supply.
Crude oil production in Canada is expected to increase to 6.7 million barrels per day by 2030, up from 3.2 million barrels per day in 2012, according to CAPP’s 2013 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation report released this month. This includes oil sands production of 5.2 million barrels per day by 2030, up from 1.8 million barrels per day in 2012.
“The emergence of the oil sands and the application of new technology are allowing previously uneconomic resources to be commercially extracted,” says Greg Stringham, CAPP’s vice president of markets and oil sands.
With oil sands representing the majority of Canada’s crude oil reserves, it is the primary driver of future overall growth. However, production will grow more rapidly in insitu (drilling) in the oil sands versus mining.
“In-situ is a relatively young technology in oil (less than 15 years), and we are beginning to see significant environmental and technological improvements that are making these projects more efficient,” explains Stringham. By 2030 in-situ oil sands production is forecast to reach 3.5 million barrels per day, up from one-million barrels per day in 2012.
Much of the growth in the second half of the 20-year forecast comes from a resurgence in conventional oil production. The incremental increase by 2030 is 300,000 barrels per day, compared to 200,000 barrels per day from oil sands production.
Increased production will bring significant advantages to the North American market, Stringham says. “Stronger performance for conventional tight oil in Canada and the United States, coupled with oil sands growth from Canada, enables greater North American energy security. It creates further opportunities to replace foreign crude oil imports in both Canada and the United States, and to increase exports to new markets beyond North America.”
Canadian refineries also stand to benefit. Currently, 86% of the more than 800,000 barrels per day of oil refined in Quebec and Atlantic Canada is imported, which could translate into a strong potential domestic market of 700,000 barrels for growing Canadian oil supplies. It makes economic sense for Canadian refiners to process Canadian oil if prices are competitive with imported oil.
Currently transportation continues to be a challenge in achieving that, although transport by rail is coming on strong as a transportation option. While it represents only a small portion of overall transportation compared to pipelines, it has grown significantly. This is being supported by the construction of new loading facilities and the manufacture of new tank cars. That said, there continues to be a strong need to expand pipeline infrastructure to accommodate the projected increase in oil supply and to deliver it to markets beyond Western Canada.
Outside Canada, the U.S. Gulf Coast offers a big market opportunity, as refineries in the region are seeking additional supplies of heavy oil. These refineries have trad- itionally processed oil imported primarily from Venezuela and Mexico to meet capacity, but these supplies are declining and could be displaced by crude oil from Canada. Forecasts show that by 2020 at least 1.1 million barrels per day could be supplied to this market — up from the 100,000 barrels per day that are currently supplied.
There are also significant long-term market opportun- ities beyond Canada and the U.S. The greatest potential is found in China and India, the fastest growing economies in the world. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), combined oil imports for those countries are forecast to increase from 9.2 million barrels per day in 2012 to 15.7 million barrels per day by 2030.
“Globally we have the opportunity to be the preferred supplier to a diversity of markets, providing a secure, reliable and responsible oil supply for our customers while helping to build a robust economy for Canada,” Stringham says.
Establishing Canada as an oil supplier for expanded markets domestically, continentally and globally will add to North American energy security and generate economic benefits at home, Mr. Stringham says. While the natural resource may be located in Western Canada, production growth is already having an impact on provincial economies across the country. As production expands, this impact will grow.
The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) estimated that the oil sands industry alone will generate about $117 billion in economic activity in provinces outside Alberta over the next 25 years. Employment in Canada as a result of new oil sands development is expected to grow from 75,000 jobs in 2010 to 905,000 in 2035, with 126,000 jobs in provinces other than Alberta, according to CERI.