Putin’s woes only just beginning
Dictator’s grab for Crimea will only harm his long-term ambition — to rebuild Russia’s empire
Stock markets have punished the Ruble and Russian markets over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bullyboy tactics in Crimea. By week’s end, the smart money was betting against military escalation and the S&P tested an all-time high.
But elsewhere the punishment toward Russia is only beginning. There is a Putin Doctrine that Russia has a right to invade any sovereign nation that threatens its Russian minority’s interests. This upset Europe and Washington and sent chills down the spines of former Soviet republics and satellites because most have large Russian minorities.
Putin’s pronouncements will sabotage his ambitions in the long run. Countries deliberating whether to join NATO or the missile shield will no longer hesitate to join. Others on the fence about getting into the EU will veer to the West.
Putin’s so-called allies are upset, including China, Kazakhstan and Belarus, Russian oligarchs and even the Russian public.
Putin may be a dictator, but he does have constituents to please, none more powerful than those billionaires who certainly don’t want the Putin Doctrine to result in the seizure of their London mansions, their soccer teams, their German bank accounts or their children’s inability to get visas to attend Harvard, Yale or Oxford. These are among the sanctions being contemplated.
Concerns began before the murders in the streets of Kyiv brought Ukraine’s pro-Moscow government down. In mid-December, BP announced a consortium would proceed with the second phase of the Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan. This will provide non-Russian gas supplies via a new pipeline through Turkey, Greece and Albania to Italy, making Europe less dependent on Russian energy.
(The development of Azerbaijan’s energy largesse was also behind the Georgian invasion and seizure of territories in 2008 by Putin.)
Europeans must fast track diversification to reduce dependency on Russian natural gas by accessing Norwegian and possibly American LNG. Americans, for their part, should review their restrictions on LNG exports in light of their plentiful supply of shale gas and Europe’s need for safe supply.
While outrage by the British outstripped the more equivocal comments by Germans, or even Americans, the nuanced comments — or silence — by Putin’s “allies” reveal that his attempted grab of Crimea may become the battle he won just before he lost the war to restore Russia’s greatness.
Last week, Belarus recognized the legitimacy of the new government in Kyiv, putting it at odds with Russia’s blanket condemnation of the regime as “fascists.”
Oil-rich Kazakhstan, Russia’s most important regional ally, condemned the Crimea move and rhetoric for the first time. “Kazakhstan expresses deep concern over the developments in Ukraine,” the Foreign Ministry said. “Kazakhstan calls on all sides to stop the use of force in the resolution of this situation.”
Even tiny Armenia, newest member of Russia’s customs union club, had street protests in sympathy
We are not against Russia. We are against the imperial policies of Putin and the Kremlin
with Ukraine due to concerns about a Russian invasion. Said its former Minister of National Security David Shakhnazaryan: “We are not against Russia. We are against the imperial policies of Putin and the Kremlin.”
China has also been cautious concerning Russia’s behaviour. Its government-controlled press has not published Russian propaganda but highlighted stories that describe attempts by the United States and Germany to de-escalate the situation.
China is aligned on many foreign policy issues with Russia. But one online source said Beijing, after the Crimea invasion, stated: “It is China’s long-standing position not to interfere in others’ internal affairs.”
But worse than wobbly allies are indications the Russian public is not enamoured with their leader’s latest activities. The Kremlin’s own pollster on Monday said 73% of Russians rejected intervention.
This may reflect the fact that the largest Ukrainian diaspora in the world lives in Russia, some 25 million. This allows Russians to bypass government controlled media and propaganda by going online or simply by calling Ukrainian relatives and friends.
Ironically, Ukraine’s crisis is worrisome to Russian authorities. Recent polls in Moscow and St. Petersburg, after the Ukrainian overthrow, showed 30% of respondents believed that Russia could see massive political protests like Ukraine’s. Perhaps that was why on Feb. 28 Putin placed activist Alexei Navalny under house arrest after he won 30% of the votes to become Moscow’s mayor.
The outcome of the referendum in Crimea on joining Russia is not a foregone conclusion. Some 60% of its two million residents are Russian, but polls showed only 42% favoured joining Russia. This referendum is not legal, but if Crimeans opt to join Russia the vote would certainly concede the higher moral ground to secessionists.
In the end, Ukraine’s fledgling government is responsible for what happens. Knowing the world won’t intervene militarily, any more than George W. Bush did in 2008 when Putin took two provinces away from Georgia, does Kyiv acknowledge a peaceful exit by referendum of Crimea? Or does it provide bona fide guarantees to Moscow about its naval base to avert a clash? Or does it agree to joint jurisdiction?
Most importantly, Ukraine must get its act together. In its 23 years of independence, one rotten regime after another has been elected. Even when opposed, as in 2004 during the Orange Revolution, incompetence was replaced by corruption and dictatorship.
Unable to become democratic or prosperous, Ukraine has to join the European Union sooner rather than later. It is a failed state and its political class needs a template (and loans with strings attached) to become a developed nation. If Kyiv had gotten its act together back in 1991, it would be part of the European Union today. And to those who doubt the wisdom of that strategy, consider that Ukraine’s 45.5 million people have a smaller GDP than the 10.5 million who live in the Czech Republic.
The EU template works and delivers results to those countries that work hard and have become democratic. Nothing will succeed like success.