A GOOD YEAR TO BE BAD
Whether it’s Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel, the 2015 NHL draft looks like a good one, and teams seem to know it
The question is whether the Buffalo Sabres should pick Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel. Or maybe it makes sense for them to build from the blueline and take defenceman Noah Hanifin? If so, what would that mean for the Florida Panthers, Carolina Hurricanes and Winnipeg Jets?
Three weeks into the season seems a bit early to muse about the upcoming NHL Entry Draft and what teams might be in a position to select first overall. And yet, with how sluggish some of the teams have started out of the gate, the tanks are clearly rolling in the race for a lottery pick.
As one scout put it, the battle to be bad appears to be even more competitive than the one to make the playoffs.
The Sabres, who are one of six teams with just one win after six games, have allowed 14 more goals than they have scored; the Panthers have scored five goals in five games; the Hurricanes are still looking for their first win, the Winnipeg Jets have lost four straight, while the Philadelphia Flyers and Edmonton Oilers went five and six games, respectively, before finally picking up their first win of the season.
No one is mathematically out of the playoffs, but check back with us in December because based on the early returns this promises to be an ugly season for the bottom feeders. When Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin were selected first and second overall in 2004, nine teams failed to record 30 wins in hopes of landing one of the prized prospects.
With a similar reward waiting for the last place team, it is not exactly surprising that seven teams headed into Monday night’s game still without two wins to their name.
“I don’t believe you should try to be bad. But in a year where you know you’re going to be out of the playoffs and you’re looking at how you can better your team, the most immediate place is at the draft,” said TSN director of scouting Craig Button, a former NHL GM and scout. “Now in a draft that is deeper, the chance of getting a significant player becomes even greater.”
Next year’s draft is not like last summer’s, where no one could tell the difference between the top-4 picks. This is not Edmonton settling for Nail Yakupov or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. This is not even a Taylor versus Tyler debate.
According to Button, the 2015 NHL Entry Draft this is the closest thing to 2003, where the first two rounds were a who’s who list of full of future Hall of Famers. In fact, had McDavid, Eichel and Hanifin been draft eligible this year, chances are all three would have been chosen ahead of last summer’s No. 1 overall pick Aaron Ekblad.
“I keep going back to the ’03 draft,” said Button. “Ryan Getzlaf was the 19th pick, Corey Perry is the 28th pick, Ryan Kesler and Zach Parise were picked in the late teens. It’s unbelievable that playoff teams got these players.”
Unlike the 2003 draft, which had Marc-André Fleury going first overall, next year features two centres at the top who have the potential to come in and make an immediate impact. McDavid already has 25 points in 9 games for the Erie Otters this season, while Eichel scored two goals and had two assists in his NCAA debut for Boston College last week.
But it does not end there. The 6-foot-2 Hanifin has been described as the best defence prospect in the last decade; Dylan Strome is a bigger and more complete version of his older brother Ryan, a New York Islanders forward; and from Swiss defenceman Oliver Kylington to Czech centre Pavel Zacha to Finnish winger Mikko Rantanen, there is star potential stretching well into the second round.
If a team is going to be bad, this might be a good time to for it.
“It certainly would be the year,” said Dennis McInnis, director of scouting at International Scouting Services. “Honestly, all of those three guys — [McDavid, Eichel and Hanifan] — are on the same level. Except one is a defenceman.
“This year’s draft is very deep. You’re getting quality players in the top-50.”
Teams seem to be recognizing that. Buffalo, which is coincidentally hosting the 2015 draft, began the year with an inexperienced blue line and a goaltending tandem that leaves much to be desired; Carolina has not tried to replace injured forwards Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner and is potentially looking to trade Eric Staal; and while Edmonton, Winnipeg, Florida and the Calgary Flames seem intent on climbing out of the basement, it might be easier to accomplish with one more franchise player on the roster.
In other words, there might not be any dishonour in tanking for Connor.